I walked to a Climate Change lecture downtown today.
So, I had lots of time to think about things....Like Afghanistan.
I sure hope that President Obama knows more about this than i do.
But, from my limited viewpoint (and I have read and attended lectures on this) I think it is hopeless.
I have heard estimate that it will take upwards of a million Afghan Militia/Police to establish central government rule there. Even if this is possible altogether. In recent times, anyway, there has never been an effective central government anywhere outside Kabul and, maybe a few other cities. The countryside has been governed by tribal chiefs, even during the brief Taliban days. With low pay for the government soldiers, graft will run amok. Soldiers will be in the employ of local chiefs as much, if not more than by the central government.
So, what will these chiefs do with their power?
Some will let the Taliban rule. Others will become safe havens for Al Qaida. But, most will just be local fiefdoms. These local chiefs just want what is best for them. Some might even have the best interests of their people at heart.
So, whats so bad about local rule?
OK...back to President Obama's plan. I can only hope that two months of briefings have given him better insight than I have. I worked hard for his election because I had confidence in his basic intelligence to solve very complicated problems.
I guess I will give him the benefit of the doubt....What alternative do I have?
So...what do I think will happen?
I think in June, President Obama will voice confidence that things are getting better....But...That more needs to be done. So, the troops need to stay.
I think he will call for reviews on progress every six months.
Each time, he will show confidence and ask for six months more time.
This will go on until we approach his re-election campaign,
Then, I predict, he will declare victory and begin bringing the troops home.
I hope it is true victory, but I doubt it.
So, what about his re-election prospects?
Some said his Afghan policy was a road to a one term presidency. For now, I hope not.
Too many other things ride on a continued Democratic Presidency....And Democratic majorities in Congress.
OK...enough for now.
Any comments?
Alan
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Wednesday, September 2, 2009
Alan at 69
"Will you still need me, will you still love me, when I'm 6……9"?
OK, so the Beatles said "64", but I say it 5 years later.
69.....the year both of my parents died.....Well...I have to much to live for to go their way.
In fact, I have as good a life as anybody could ask for.........family, friends, intellectual stimulation.....good health...even reasonable finances. I hope this rambling will not jinx any of that.
My mother would never write such a thing. Never tempt the evil eye, she would say. But, me, well I forge ahead undaunted.
Why? You ask....Well because I am so very happy right now.
First, my family.....Immediate and distant all love me and likewise.
First, there is Barbara. Late in life, I met the most generous, loving person imaginable. Her generosity reminds me of my father. And that is saying a lot for those who knew him. She and he would have hit it off splendidly...except for one important difference.......their views of women's place in the world. But, I will not go there. Yes...Barb and I differ a lot, both being quite opinionated. But, on one thing we agree totally....we are deeply committed and....yes.....love each other.
Next....my girls....Mira and Sara. Both fully mature adults with societally important careers that make me so proud.
My eldest, Mira, arrived around Thanksgiving in 1969. And I have been giving thanks for her ever since. My mother was so happy when we named her after her mother. Sylvia and I gave up smoking to assure Mira’s pre natal health. The first of many good things attributable to Mira. Some say Mira is my clone. OK, so I am exaggerating a bit….OK, a lot. But, we do look alike (if you look beyond the facial and head top hair differences) and have many similar interests. Like loving baseball, photography, politics...... Mira reminds me so much of my father....loving, generous, gregarious. He would, in fact DID for the few years they knew each other, love her as I do.
About two years later, Sara arrived. Her birthday date being one day before my father’s, Feb 9, 1972. He always said she was one day older than him. My father was so happy to have a grand daughter named after his mother. Often when I am with Sara we arrive at the same thought simultaneously. Must be in the genes. I say great minds think along the same lines. Sara brings me a bonus, Victor. It is hard to imagine a better son-in-law (still to be at this writing). The only thing that separates Victor from perfection is that he has no serious interest in baseball.
Seven years my junior, Bunny, is the next most important person in my life. The Easter time gift in 1947. How much fun I had in teasing her in our youth. And now have in confiding in her in my adulthood.
Next, comes my adopted family through Barbara. Lenore, Jonathan and Anne, and their spouses, have all welcomed me like I was a long time member of their family. But, in fact, Jonathan and Anne bring me another bonus……three grand nieces and a nephew. As of this writing that is as close as I get to grandchildren. I am reveling in their childhood and maturation as if they were my own.
I cannot leave family without mention of my cousins, Jay (closest in age to me), Greta (and Alvin), and Sandra. Few in number, but large in sentiment. Alas, my final cousin, Blanche and I do not communicate these days. Well, you can’t win 'em all.
No life relationship can be complete without friends. In that regard, I am well endowed, indeed. Although, my closest boyhood friend, almost brother, Bob Silverstein, is passed, I have many other friends to warm my heart. Throughout the various times in my life, from high school, through undergraduate and graduate school, to various parts of my professional life, I have accumulated friends. Too many to single out by name. But, all helping to fill out my most fortunate life.
That completes the companionship component of my life. What about intellectual stimulation?
After retiring from a fulfilling, 40-year career in meteorology (and oceanography) research, I have taken up tour guiding. From scientist to historian. The only thing in common is my love to perform. And love it, I do. Imagine a job where people pay me to lecture to them and hang on my every word. Well, some do, anyway. Science went from my profession to my hobby. And history went from my hobby to my profession. I love the reversal and revel in both.
Health? Well for a 69 year old, I feel pretty good. Sure, as my friend Bill Gemmil says, “…at our age, the warrantee on the parts starts running out”. But, they all still work. Knock on wood.
Finances? Well, you can’t win ‘em all. The financial and real estate bubbles put a crimp in my plans. But, tour guiding keeps the wolf away from my (very expensive) Washington, DC condo door. Like my parents, my goal is to die with just $100 in the bank. Sorry, no inheritance to be had here. Other than spiritual. And there is also my trove of photos on my computer and my barometers on my wall.
So….how do I feel in my 69th year? In a word….GREAT.
Stay tuned for a report at 79.
OK, so the Beatles said "64", but I say it 5 years later.
69.....the year both of my parents died.....Well...I have to much to live for to go their way.
In fact, I have as good a life as anybody could ask for.........family, friends, intellectual stimulation.....good health...even reasonable finances. I hope this rambling will not jinx any of that.
My mother would never write such a thing. Never tempt the evil eye, she would say. But, me, well I forge ahead undaunted.
Why? You ask....Well because I am so very happy right now.
First, my family.....Immediate and distant all love me and likewise.
First, there is Barbara. Late in life, I met the most generous, loving person imaginable. Her generosity reminds me of my father. And that is saying a lot for those who knew him. She and he would have hit it off splendidly...except for one important difference.......their views of women's place in the world. But, I will not go there. Yes...Barb and I differ a lot, both being quite opinionated. But, on one thing we agree totally....we are deeply committed and....yes.....love each other.
Next....my girls....Mira and Sara. Both fully mature adults with societally important careers that make me so proud.
My eldest, Mira, arrived around Thanksgiving in 1969. And I have been giving thanks for her ever since. My mother was so happy when we named her after her mother. Sylvia and I gave up smoking to assure Mira’s pre natal health. The first of many good things attributable to Mira. Some say Mira is my clone. OK, so I am exaggerating a bit….OK, a lot. But, we do look alike (if you look beyond the facial and head top hair differences) and have many similar interests. Like loving baseball, photography, politics...... Mira reminds me so much of my father....loving, generous, gregarious. He would, in fact DID for the few years they knew each other, love her as I do.
About two years later, Sara arrived. Her birthday date being one day before my father’s, Feb 9, 1972. He always said she was one day older than him. My father was so happy to have a grand daughter named after his mother. Often when I am with Sara we arrive at the same thought simultaneously. Must be in the genes. I say great minds think along the same lines. Sara brings me a bonus, Victor. It is hard to imagine a better son-in-law (still to be at this writing). The only thing that separates Victor from perfection is that he has no serious interest in baseball.
Seven years my junior, Bunny, is the next most important person in my life. The Easter time gift in 1947. How much fun I had in teasing her in our youth. And now have in confiding in her in my adulthood.
Next, comes my adopted family through Barbara. Lenore, Jonathan and Anne, and their spouses, have all welcomed me like I was a long time member of their family. But, in fact, Jonathan and Anne bring me another bonus……three grand nieces and a nephew. As of this writing that is as close as I get to grandchildren. I am reveling in their childhood and maturation as if they were my own.
I cannot leave family without mention of my cousins, Jay (closest in age to me), Greta (and Alvin), and Sandra. Few in number, but large in sentiment. Alas, my final cousin, Blanche and I do not communicate these days. Well, you can’t win 'em all.
No life relationship can be complete without friends. In that regard, I am well endowed, indeed. Although, my closest boyhood friend, almost brother, Bob Silverstein, is passed, I have many other friends to warm my heart. Throughout the various times in my life, from high school, through undergraduate and graduate school, to various parts of my professional life, I have accumulated friends. Too many to single out by name. But, all helping to fill out my most fortunate life.
That completes the companionship component of my life. What about intellectual stimulation?
After retiring from a fulfilling, 40-year career in meteorology (and oceanography) research, I have taken up tour guiding. From scientist to historian. The only thing in common is my love to perform. And love it, I do. Imagine a job where people pay me to lecture to them and hang on my every word. Well, some do, anyway. Science went from my profession to my hobby. And history went from my hobby to my profession. I love the reversal and revel in both.
Health? Well for a 69 year old, I feel pretty good. Sure, as my friend Bill Gemmil says, “…at our age, the warrantee on the parts starts running out”. But, they all still work. Knock on wood.
Finances? Well, you can’t win ‘em all. The financial and real estate bubbles put a crimp in my plans. But, tour guiding keeps the wolf away from my (very expensive) Washington, DC condo door. Like my parents, my goal is to die with just $100 in the bank. Sorry, no inheritance to be had here. Other than spiritual. And there is also my trove of photos on my computer and my barometers on my wall.
So….how do I feel in my 69th year? In a word….GREAT.
Stay tuned for a report at 79.
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
Inauguration
Well, we (Barbara and I) did it. We attended the inauguration ceremonies of our 44th President, the first of color....Barack Hussein Obama. Live, in person......
We Metro'd to the L'Enfant Plaza stop, with surprisingly little delay at about 6AM.
We actually led a student tour group, with whom we stayed overnight at their motel.
So, a 4AM wake-up call and a meager breakfast had us on our way to the Branch Avenue Metro stop (Leading the group) by 5AM. Yes....I started that early. Not something I usually do. But, the event necessitated extreme action.
We stood outside (Of course) for about 5 hours in freezing temperatures (High 20's) to witness this historic event. No food, no water and no bathroom break. Yes, there were many porta poddies, but not in our area. And besides, we would have had to give up our spot to get to them. No way.......
Barbara got official tickets to the "Silver" area, just inside (east of) 3rd street on the Mall. We could see the speakers' stand, but were too far away to actually see the speakers. So, we watched it on the jumbotrons. Like all the people outside the official area and along the Mall. An estimated 2 million of them.
But....we have our official tickets (secured from a contact of Barbara's in Speaker Pelosi's office) as souvenirs.
In fact, when we got to the entry gate, all they did was a hand body tap down and a cursory search of our bags. In fact, they never asked to see our official tickets.
So, after all that, what did I think?
Well, it was not as much of a circus as I expected. No colorful hats or clothes. No banners were allowed in our area. So, I cannot speak for the rest of the Mall. But, I think banners were banned there as well. Maybe it was the season, but things were definitely drab. My red coat was a rare display of color. No creative buttons. At $10 - $20 a pop, the vendors could have done better. They were so much more creative and colorful at the Denver convention. My $5 hat, purchased in my neighborhood across from the Zoo, was among the more colorful.
Everybody was well behaved. Cheered for the good guys and booed the bad. I will let you guess who was who.
But, unlike the acceptance speech at Invesco Field in Denver, the scene at this inaugural was definitely not electric. Polite cheers but no jumping up and down like at Invesco. This was an historic even, but not a "Peak Life Experience" like the acceptance speech. Or even his Convention speech four years earlier. I guess another emotional speech was too much to hope for. It will be interesting to see if any of his phrases become historic. I did not hear any.
Of course, what made it historic was the color of the man and the tenor of our times, not necessarily his words.
But, now that history has been made, we will soon have to see effective action. Effective....action. I surely do not know what that is.
But, at this juncture, I am confident the Barak Obama will find the right action.
I think he has the proper, maybe even unique, combination of charisma to instill hope, and intellect to make that hope be fulfilled. It will take both to carry us through what lies ahead of all of us. Charisma is necessary for people to believe things will/are getting better. And intellect to insure he will make the kind of decisions to make that charismatic inspired belief actually come true. I believe in self fulfilling prophesy. If we think these are improving, they will. But, only for a while. In the end the decisions will have to be successful on their own.
You can do it Barack. I am behind you.
We Metro'd to the L'Enfant Plaza stop, with surprisingly little delay at about 6AM.
We actually led a student tour group, with whom we stayed overnight at their motel.
So, a 4AM wake-up call and a meager breakfast had us on our way to the Branch Avenue Metro stop (Leading the group) by 5AM. Yes....I started that early. Not something I usually do. But, the event necessitated extreme action.
We stood outside (Of course) for about 5 hours in freezing temperatures (High 20's) to witness this historic event. No food, no water and no bathroom break. Yes, there were many porta poddies, but not in our area. And besides, we would have had to give up our spot to get to them. No way.......
Barbara got official tickets to the "Silver" area, just inside (east of) 3rd street on the Mall. We could see the speakers' stand, but were too far away to actually see the speakers. So, we watched it on the jumbotrons. Like all the people outside the official area and along the Mall. An estimated 2 million of them.
But....we have our official tickets (secured from a contact of Barbara's in Speaker Pelosi's office) as souvenirs.
In fact, when we got to the entry gate, all they did was a hand body tap down and a cursory search of our bags. In fact, they never asked to see our official tickets.
So, after all that, what did I think?
Well, it was not as much of a circus as I expected. No colorful hats or clothes. No banners were allowed in our area. So, I cannot speak for the rest of the Mall. But, I think banners were banned there as well. Maybe it was the season, but things were definitely drab. My red coat was a rare display of color. No creative buttons. At $10 - $20 a pop, the vendors could have done better. They were so much more creative and colorful at the Denver convention. My $5 hat, purchased in my neighborhood across from the Zoo, was among the more colorful.
Everybody was well behaved. Cheered for the good guys and booed the bad. I will let you guess who was who.
But, unlike the acceptance speech at Invesco Field in Denver, the scene at this inaugural was definitely not electric. Polite cheers but no jumping up and down like at Invesco. This was an historic even, but not a "Peak Life Experience" like the acceptance speech. Or even his Convention speech four years earlier. I guess another emotional speech was too much to hope for. It will be interesting to see if any of his phrases become historic. I did not hear any.
Of course, what made it historic was the color of the man and the tenor of our times, not necessarily his words.
But, now that history has been made, we will soon have to see effective action. Effective....action. I surely do not know what that is.
But, at this juncture, I am confident the Barak Obama will find the right action.
I think he has the proper, maybe even unique, combination of charisma to instill hope, and intellect to make that hope be fulfilled. It will take both to carry us through what lies ahead of all of us. Charisma is necessary for people to believe things will/are getting better. And intellect to insure he will make the kind of decisions to make that charismatic inspired belief actually come true. I believe in self fulfilling prophesy. If we think these are improving, they will. But, only for a while. In the end the decisions will have to be successful on their own.
You can do it Barack. I am behind you.
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