Wednesday, November 7, 2012


Despicable Romney
Never have I felt worse about a Presidential candidate than I now feel about Mitt Romney.  Not even Nixon.
His concession speech tonight was a disgrace. 
Only the very minimum congratulations to President Obama, with no mention at all of putting aside past disagreements and working together to bind up our wounds of division.  None of that at all.
Instead he talked about his wonderful choice of Paul Ryan and he and Paul put up a good fight.
The Republican loyalists have every reason now to continue to resist anything that President Obama might try to move the country forward.  He never asked them to do otherwise.

This final act is a culmination of a disgraceful campaign Romney ran.  He started by pandering to the right wing of his party during the primaries.  Reversing many positions he had the first time he ran and during his governorship in Mass.  Then reversing many of those primary positions in the general election.  Finally, during the last week of the election by endorsing absolute lies about Chrysler sending jobs to China.  Absolute lies. 

Then this disgraceful concession speech.

Thank heaven he lost.  Good riddens to bad rubage.

Contrast his concession speech with President Obama’s victory speech.
Yes, he did recite much of his campaign rhetoric.  But, he started by praising Governor Romney’s campaign and his ideals.  But, more important, in contrast to no mention of working together by Romney, President Obama spoke of sitting down with Governor Romney to work out their differences.  “,,,,To reaching out to leaders of both parties,,,,,”
A gentleman and, I am proud to say, our President.

Tuesday, October 30, 2012

Evolving Weather Forecast Technology

As Hurricane Sandy churned its way toward Mt Vernon, I thought about how much weather forecast technology has changed since George Washington's time in the late 1700s. This, as I prepared to give the Washington, DC chapter of the CCNY Alumni Association, a tour of this historic sight...on a marvelous autumn day in October.  As a Meteorology major, I graduated from CCNY in June of 1961, to embark on a 40 year career in Meteorology, that started with earning MS and PhD degrees from Penn State University, also in Meteorology.  The storm was in the news and my charges all wanted to know what would happen......From their fellow CCNY grad...who just happened to be a Meteorologist.  So, here was my lecture as we waited for the group to collect.

Washington's Time
In the late 1700s, the only tools that a weather forecaster had were his eyes and a barometer.  (Yes, virtually all scientists of that time would have been males. Thus, the his above).  On this October day (October 27), he would have seen falling pressure on the barometer.  And....high, thin clouds in the sky.  Both would have warned him of worsening weather.  But, in fact, as the afternoon wore on, the skies brightened.  Maybe things would not be so bad after all.
He would have been in a quandary about what to tell George about tomorrow;s weather.  What to expect on the way Io church on Sunday....15 miles north in Alexandria.
Let alone next week for crop and house maintenance work.

Lincoln's Time
The next 100 years saw the emergence of teletype machines to improve communication.
Now our forecaster could see weather to the west as well as overhead.  And, on this day, he would have seen fair weather to the west.  Since weather normally moves west to east in  the US, our forecaster might have been inclined to predict improving weather at Mt Vernon over the next few days.  No problem for George's trip to church in Alexandra on Sunday.  And, maybe a good time for outdoor work on the farm next week.  Although by Lincoln's;s time, George was long gone as was the farm.....

Weinstein's Time  (Pardon me for equating myself with them.)
The beginning of my meteorology career saw the introduction of weather radar and satellites. Now, a weather forecaster could not only see to the west, but, also to the south and east.  And, there was trouble there.  A hurricane was off shore and moving north.  Combined with the cold high over the US Midwest and another high over Greenland, this spelled trouble for Mt Vernon.  A Synoptic Meteorologist of that day would have predicted serious weather for all of the Mid and North Atlantic states, including Mt Vernon.  But, the timing and intensity of the storm would have been unknown.  Bad, and next week would be all he could say with confidence.  He might have fallen back on past storms for a clue.  Some called this "Analog" forecasting.  Some simply called it "experience".  But, no two storms are ever the same. 
(I might add, that I was never a forecaster, so I was never faced with this task.  Instead, I was working in research, to improve weather forecasting.  Most said I would always have a job.)

Now
Over the past 50 years the technology advance has been in computer power and numerical weather prediction models.  Now we can pin down the intensity and timing of such storms.  In this case the predictions were for 40 - 60 MPH winds and 6 - 10 inches of rain.  All to occur between Monday and Tuesday....at Mt Vernon.  By now, George would have been able to dri\ve to church in Alexandria on Sunday.  But, would have been well advised to return to Mt Vernon quickly to oversea the batten downing of the farm for the impending deluge.......As people all over the Mid and North Atlantic states were doing.   We were all preparing for the storm of the century....or the "Frankinstorm" as it was called, coming the day before Halloween. 

Summary
So, over the past 250 or so years, weather forecasting technology, and knowledge, has progressed from the eyeball and the barometer, to a complex set of satellite and radar observations and computer models. 
In George Washington's time, the storm would have been largely a surprise, at least in its intensity and destructive power.  Today, we were prepared.
That is not to say we had no problems from this storm.  A few lives were lost in the Mt Vernon area, and many more were, and still are being, effected by loss of power.  And there was much destruction of property.  More lives would probably been lost in George;s time, and there would almost surely have been greater damage to his estate at Mt Vernon.  But, candles would have lit the Mansion and fireplace fires would have warmed it.
Today, many houses are dark, save for flashlights, and some people will be cold tonight as the temperature falls into the low 40's....and...snow falls in West Virginia.

NJ, NY, and New England would have fared much worse in Washington's time due to the surprise of the storm.  But, these places are still suffering today.  This shows that improved weather forecasting can help.  But, Mother Nature still prevails.

Maybe the next technology advance will be in weather modification, to keep bad weather away, or reduce its intensity.  That is hard to envision now.  But, then again, George never envisioned weather satellites, computers or, maybe even teletype machines. 

.

Sunday, July 22, 2012

Paterno Revisited
OK, it is now time to revisit my thoughts about Joe Paterno.
First, I still think he got a raw deal from the PSU Board of Directors.
As I said earlier, they owed it to him to allow him to tell them, in private, his side of the story before they fired him.  They never did that and there is still no record of his words or thoughts on this sad episode.  He once did say..."I could have done more".  But, that is all.

That being said, I am saddened by what appears to have been his actions.  Dreadful, to say the least.  It appears that he was front and center in the cover up.  In fact, there was one report that the AD, President and VP had all agreed to go to the authorities.  But, Paterno vetoed the idea.  He had that much power.  How could he have taken that action?  We will never know.  Even if the others eventually tell what they heard.
We will never have the opportunity to hear, first hand, from him.
In retrospect, is that good or bad?  Do we really need to see him confess about his poor actions?  On the other hand, shouldn't we hear from him on what was on his mind?  Alas, neither will happen.

So, where do we go from here?
Where should Paterno stand in Penn State history? In fact, in college football history?
There can be bo doubt that Paterno brought Penn State from obscurity to national attention.  When he came, they were an obscure agricultural school buried in Central Pennsylvania.  Today they are a proud member of one of the most prestigious university conferences in the US.  The Big Ten is no Ivy, but it does have some of the best faculty and research staffs in the country.
I seriously doubt that Penn State, both in sports and in academia, would be where it is today without Joe Paterno.  Football brought money and money brings academic prominence.  I am sure the fund raising success of the past President, was due, in some large part, to the pride of the alumni in the success of the football team. 

And, he does have the most victories of any coach ever (See below for a revision here).  I acknowledge that some of these victories of late were over second rate schools.  But, he did serve the first few years (10 maybe) as Assistant Coach.  While others were accumulating victories at small colleges.  So, his victory record is still noteworthy.  He built the team...and rebuilt it several times.  He truly deserves his place in the College Football Hall of Fame.

But, What about now?
For the immediate future, I think the President has taken the correct course.
The statue was a continuing reminder of the past, shameful, episode.  It would always remind people of Paterno's unfortunate action, and the sorrow it caused.  Nobody needed to see the statue on the way to next season's opening game.  Surely, the press would have been there to show the world our shame.

They were also correct to keep the Paterno name on the library.  He, and his wife, gave of their own funds to grow that library.  Other donors get their names on buildings they sponsor.  So should the Paterno family.

I strongly feel that football got in the way of prudence in this case.  Even the honorable Joe Paterno seemed to let it get in the way of good judgement.  We will never know if Paterno was protecting a long time Assistant Coach.  Or was protecting his while program.  But, in either case, it was reprehensible.   He got caught up in the frenzy of big time college football.

So, to prevent, or at least reduce the chance of that happenig again at Penn State, it is time to bite the bullet and get out of big time football.  I know it will kill the golden funding cow.  But, it may save the whole herd, in fact, the whole farm.......the University, from another episode like this.  Never should one sport, or even one academic program. be allowed to wield as much power as Paterno's football program did.  As I said before, it was the football program that led to Penn  State's academic prominence.  Now it is time for that academic program to stand on its own two feet.  That would be the final tribute to Joe Paterno at Penn State.

Bottom line
Paterno got a bad deal from the Board
Paterno acted poorly, very poorly.
Paterno is historic to PSU and football overall.
PSU should get out of big time football as a tribute to Joe Paterno.

NCAA Decisions
Since I originally posted this, the NCAA has come out with their sanctions.  Here are my thoughts about those:
1) $60 Million Fine - Very good action.  The PSU afministration acted awfully and this fine is fully justified.  By setting up a money stream to fight this in the future, this action will help prevent it from happening again.
2) Lost Scholorships - Very good action.  This will force Penn State to downplay foortball for a while.  Maybe forever.  Although I do think it will be a long while, if ever, that a football coach will wield the power Paterno once had.  This will prevent that from happening again.
3) Vacated Wins - Here I am of two differentv minds.
On the one side, I feel Paterno's actions were reprehensinle and he should be severely punished.
But,,,
On the other side.  He is dead now.  He went to his grave believing he was the winningest coach in college football history.  This action cannot take that belief away from him.  So, what punishment to him is this?  None.  It is punishment to his family.  Who had nothing to do with his action.  So, why punish them?  And
Vacating wins is justified when the win s were gained illegally.  Like when bribes were involved or when ineligible players were involved.  None of this is applicable here.  So, why vacate these wins?  They were fully and fairly achieved.
I am truly torn here.  But, think, marginally, that this was not the right action for the NCAA to have taken to punish Paterno.  I do not what else they could have done.  But, this did not punish the man...Only his legacy.  And, that legacy is already severly tarmished.
4) Bowl Game Ban - Again, mixed feelings.
On the one hand, this ban will further hurt the football program and reduce its impact on PSU overall.  Surely that is good.  But...
On the other hand, it only punishes the present team and its coach.  Neither had anything to do with this event.  So, why puinsh them?
In this case, I come out strongly against this action.. Especially for 4 years.

One Final Thought
Like many, I wonder how such an honorable man like Joe Paterno have participated, maybe even led, such a reprehensible cover up.  I have on one viable theory.
So, hold your hats......Sandusky knew something very serious about Joe or the program, that Paterno did not want let out.  If he pressed Sandusky, maybe Sandusky would let it out...  And the horoably Joe Paterno might have been seen not to be so honorable after all.  It was 20 years ago, when Paterno was still building his legend.   Think about it....