Election Prospects in 2012

OK, here goes with my forecast for the 2012 elections.
Fools rush in, where angels fear to tread. Am I a fool? Time will tell.

First, the Congress
Two factors are relevant in the House. First is the significant lead the Republican already have. It is 50, with one still to be decided..
Second is redistricting as a result of the recent Census. In this past election, the Republicans won majorities in many state Assemblies and even more Governorships. So, redistricting will go largely their way. One estimate I heard was the elimination of 11 Democrat districts.

So, do the arithmetic…. 50 + 11 = 61. The 63 swing for the Republican was viewed as a landslide. A 61 swing back to the Democrats is unrealistic to expect. So…count the House as Republican again in 2013.

There are 11 Democratic Senators whose terms expire in 2012. This is in sharp contrast to only 3 Republicans. A swing of only two or three seats turns the majority to the Republican here as well. Count the Senate as Republican as well as the House.

Bottom line is that we have a fully Republican Congress in 2013.

Next, the Presidency
History definitely favors an incumbent President.
There are three exceptions in recent times. All are special cases.
Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter and George Bush I.

Gerald Ford was barely an incumbent. He was President less than a year after Richard Nixon resigned. He was never elected President in his own right.
And, he had just pardoned Nixon. In hindsight, history is divided about if that was a good or bad move for the country. But, at the time, it was roundly criticized and weighed him down as a Nixon man. So, he started way behind. But, even then, he was closing fast, but did lose to a Watergate reaction change candidate, Jimmy Carter.

Jimmy Carter had three strikes against him in his reelection bid, maybe even four. First, he won a bruising primary battle with a Kennedy. Consequently, many long standing Democrats doubted him and sat on their hands during the election.
Second, the economy was in shambles with double-digit inflation and double-digit unemployment. Never the twain has ever met, before or since.
Third, was the Iranian hostage crisis. His response was an ill-fated rescue attempt, which failed. America hates failure.
Fourth, his opponent was Ronald Reagan, an actor, the great communicator, who tore Carter apart in the debates.
Never has there been a more perfect storm for an incumbent President to lose.

Finally, there was the first George Bush.
Here, we had a rarity, a three-candidate contest. Remember Ross Perot?
How many Clinton votes do you think Perot took? How many Bush votes?
Clinton won with a 43% plurality of the vote. Without Perot, Bush would surely have won.

Contrast that with all the successful incumbents who might have looked in jeopardy at the two year out period as we are at now.
Harry Truman, even Ronald Reagan was in some trouble, Bill Clinton (with the Gingrich House), George Bush II (with a very unpopular war).
All pulled out what looked like upset victories two years before the election.

Lets look at their opposition.
Truman, a colorful campaigner (Remember the whistle stops?) beat the lack luster Dewey.
Reagan beat Michael Dukakis, very badly in the debates. Remember the question about rape of your daughter?
Bush ran a much better campaign that another Massachusetts Democrat with a worrisome war record, John Kerry.
In all cases, well run campaigns with charismatic candidates beat poorly run campaigns with lack luster candidates.

So, now we come to 2012 and, presumably, another Obama Democrat candidacy.
I say presumably, because there is always the chance he will drop out if all seems lost…like Lyndon Johnson. Or, maybe even be forced out by unhappy, left of center Democrats. But, I doubt it will get that bad…if bad at all. So, I will assume Barack Obama will be the Democratic candidate in 2012. Maybe with or without Joe Biden. I think Hillary Clinton would add more to the ticket than Joe Biden. But, I am not sure she would accept it. And, I doubt the VP candidate really matters anyway.

But, I digress.

Lets evaluate the Obama chances….two years ahead…Obviously, a risky business.
Lets look at three things…. foreign policy, domestic policy and the charisma issue.

Foreign Policy
In an earlier blog, I talked about Afghanistan. I still see it as a losing proposition.
So, somehow Obama has to find a graceful way to exit a war that is steadily declining in public acceptance. The sooner the better, but no more than one year.
Prediction number 1 in this regard is that the war in Afghanistan will wind down very soon and be full by one year from now. I already said that in my earlier blog on Afghanistan.

The next issue is Iran. I think he will (try to) avoid this like a plague. And the public will allow that. Nobody likes Iran, but nobody considers them an immediate threat. So, few are demanding any action. OK, so maybe the Israel Lobby. But, not enough.

Next is North Korea. Here, I see him talking big, but, probably (see below), trying to avoid any direct action. I do not see the general public clamoring for a war in Korea. But, if the North Koreans develop enough firepower to threaten the U.S. west coast, look out. I could see a surgical strike to wipe out these threatening missiles. This could lead to a land war in Korea. If sitting President Obama thinks a war might help him because the country rarely changes horses during a war, watch out. North Korean belligerence would give him his opening. Remember the old domino theory of the Viet Nam era? If Korea goes, so might the rest of Asia. This time going to the Chinese. If we are out of Afghanistan and Iraq, there will be resources for Korea.

There is nothing like a real war to pull us out of a recession. Something to take the public attention away from the economy. We must stop the Chinese Menace in its tracks!!!!
So, a conventional land war in Korea, where American firepower can be decisive, is a definite possibility. Americans love to beat their breasts with victories. In the long term, it might not be a quick win. But, in the short term, it might appear so.

Next is China herself. Here I see some real long term problems. But, not in the next two years. Again, the general public has a vague feeling of worry about China. But, it is not a crisis. It could become a crisis, however, if China comes into a war in Korea. However, I do not see China yet having the military capability to actually threaten the U.S. Maybe enough to help the North Koreans as they did the first time. But, not enough to actually threaten our homeland. They may have enough fiscal power to become a problem. But, not in the next two years. They will hope to bleed us financially. But, not drastically enough to be a problem over the next two years.

So, bottom line, I do not see the foreign policy side of the equation being a major issue. It will only become so if Obama wants to make it one to take attention away from the economy. Korea gives him the opportunity.


Domestic Policy
It’s all about jobs. And, this is a major problem for the Obama team. Even the most optimistic economists do not think the unemployment rate will fall below 8% over the next year. And many see it still above 9%. I cannot see the public falling in behind an incumbent President with over 40 million unemployed.

Charisma
Charisma has trumped everything in virtually every presidential election in modern times…maybe even in history. OK, so maybe not with Jimmy Carter. But, his opponent, Jerald Ford, was even more lack luster than Carter.
Candidate Obama had great charisma last time. A young merchant of change. So, what happened?
Did anything really change? OK so we got health care that few really understand. We got a financial control bill that turns out to be quite weak. And, that nobody but the big bankers really understand either.
We have a really smart President who the public either does not understand…or worse, is beginning to doubt. Some of his opponents say he was always too inexperienced for the job in the first place. And, has surrounded himself with a weak, uncharismatic, team…. Hillary Clinton notwithstanding. Technocrats who may, or may not, understand technical problems. But, who cannot explain them anyway.

His past supporters largely stayed home this last mid year election. Either they were burned out from two years ago. Or, they were genuinely disappointed.

The average public doubts, at least is suspicious of, intellectual intelligence. And President Obama exudes that very characteristic. Adlai Stevenson was the consummate intelligent intellectual, who the public never understood…or trusted. Dwight Eisenhower was the consummate common man and war hero. OK, so he was unbeatable anyway. But Stevenson never gave him a run for his money.

The mainstream public likes someone who drops his or her g’s and takes quick, decisive action. Like George Bush II. Obama studies problems to death and then gives long, complicated explanations. In the back of their minds, many people trust his intelligence. But, in the front of their minds they do not feel comfortable with him. Not a good old boy.

And…., of course, there is still the race issue. It took a truly special set of circumstances to overcome that last time. But, it is still there.

A major remake is in order. I think it is too late for Obama to look like a good old boy. But, not to late for his actions to be decisive and explanations to become clearer and crisper.
No longer can he study things indefinitely. No longer can he live on change alone. He needs to inspire us with decisive action. He needs to give us hope for the future. The American public likes to feel good about the future. Obama needs to show us the way to a better future. Anybody remember Ronald Reagan?

Or….he needs divided or weak opposition. Here lies his best hope.
Will the Republicans split into two pieces? I think they are too smart for that.. But big egos sometimes trump logic. Remember Ross Perot and Ralph Nader?

Or, will they find a way to unify around one person, with the other part of the party accepting the second place on the ticket? Sarah Palin and a mature, steady centrist as VP? Or George Romney and a rightist like Marco Rubio as VP? Or somebody we have not yet even heard of?

Palin is surely charismatic. But, Obama might be such a contrast on the intelligence front so as to make the public fear placing the country in her hands. No matter how uncomfortable main street America may be with intellectual Obama, they seem even more uncomfortable with, maybe even fearful of, lightweight Palin. Just like it is impossible for Obama to change his intellectual image, so is it too late for Palin to change her lightweight one

Romney or some other centrist would pale in comparison with a revitalized Obama. Obama is still young enough to inspire hope for the future against an old, tired, lack luster, Romney.

Bottom line on the Presidency
I think the cards are stacked against President Obama. But incumbency allows him to create an environment to pull it off. He has to figure out how to use that incumbency effectively. Some foreign policy coup. Or, maybe a war in Korea. Foreign policy is one area where the president has the freedom to take action.

Or…he needs to be lucky and have divided opposition or a flawed single opponent.

Bottom line overall
At best, for me anyway, I see a divided result. I do not see any way that the Democrats can win either side of the Congress. So, one end of Pennsylvania Avenue is definitely Republican. Maybe even, overwhelmingly so.

The only hope for the Democrats is to keep the Presidency. Even if it leads to gridlock for four more years. Then, they can wait for the country’s economy to improve (as it will likely eventually do just by cycles), benefit from the country’s never ending demand for change and frustration with another do nothing Congress, and carry out a rebirth in the mid year election of 2014.

But, if they lose the Presidency, I see a long hard winter of 4 or 8 years for people of my political persuasion.

Alas, my brain is very worried, but my heart is hopeful. I guess I will have to dig in and work hard in 2012.