On Grandfatherhood

Ok, so I am not the first grandfather in the world. But, it is all new to me.

My daughters brought me great joy as they grew, and now are frequent sources of pride. They are my investments in my future. But, now it is time for the interest on those investments…as my father called grandchildren.

I have seen many of my friends enjoy this state. Some are demonstrative and some are laid back. You can guess which group I am in.

I have held, played with and generally enjoyed being with Barbara’s grand…nibbling, as she calls them. They give me great joy. But, nothing beats my own decedents.

Benjamin Victor Moscoso-Weinstein (as he will be named in Guatemala) arrived at 6:39AM on August 21, 2011. My life has not been the same since.

I got my first peak and hold of him about 10PM after a long wait/trip from Washington. His cute face has been in my memory every since.

It is hard to describe the sense of serenity I have when I hold him. Feeling him breathe, twitch, spread out his arms and legs, yawn are all thrilling.

I dream about the first ball I will roll his way.

About the first walk we take with him holding my hand.

About my first attempt to explain baseball to him, and how rain forms.(Both of which I have already described to him while hr has rested in my arms)

About our first baseball game viewing, in real life or on TV.

About the first Science Fair project we will work on together.

About each of his lifetime milestones….Grade school graduation, Bar Mitzvah, etc. I hope I live long enough to see all of them.

In fact, his arrival has fired up my desire to live …forever.

His arrival has caused me to reminisce about my youth…as I love to do.

That started with my memory of his namesake, my Grandpa Weinstein, Benjamin. The husband of Sara’s namesake, Sarah. Sarah was a short dynamo. Benjamin was a tall, gentle man, with whom I probably never passed a single word as I doubt he spoke much English. My father looked like him and I look like my father. I hope there will be some of me, my father, and my Grandpa Weinstein in this Benjamin.

Thinking about Grandpa Weinstein, made me think of my Grandpa Lipsitz, my own namesake, Abraham, a man I never met, but saw pictures of. And his wife, my Grandma Lipsitz….Mary Lipsitz, Mira’s namesake. I distantly remember listening to afternoon soap operas with her. On the radio. “Just Plain Bill” “Porsha Faces Life”

It is funny, but Benjamin’s arrival brought more memories of my grandparents than of my own parents. Maybe a little grandparently bonding.

Next, I reminisced with Sylvia about the arrival and early childhood of our own children. How our lives changed forever on that night ride to the hospital in Pasadena to bring Mira into the world. And about how much we looked forward to Sara’s arrival to round out our intended two children family.

When the earthquake of August 2011 shook the east coast, we reminisced about the one in California through which Mira blissfully slept through and my father called about in panic.

But, I digress away from Benjamin.

Tonight, after his bris, several feedings (The boy loves to eat…..), and a poop (and diaper change by his father), he fell asleep on my shoulder after a big burp. Talk about bliss. It was thrilling to feel him breathing, occasionally twitching and generally resting on my shoulder. I told him he was great for lowering my high blood pressure better than any medicine I take.

As I write this from my motel room in Bedford, MA, I revel in how very happy I am.

World War III in Asia?

I surely hope not. But, I fear the seeds of what might eventually be called WWIII might be being planted.

Here is my fear.

The last time the world economy was so depressed, worldwide, was just prior to WWII.

In Europe, we had continent wide depression. Worst in Germany, but still widespread over the rest of the continent. Today, Germany seems secure. But widespread unrest exists in Greece, Spain, Italy and even the UK.

In Asia, we had a potential adversary, Japan, who simply did not understand the US as well as they should have….And launched a surprise attack on Pearl Harbor that they thought would simply rock us back on our heels and make us draw inward.

We all know that exactly the opposite happened. The US rose up united in revenge for this attack on our sovernty. And, we entered what came to be known as WWII.

So, what exists of a possibly similar nature in Asia today?

Both the China and North Korea rulers are aging. Their successors are already jockeying for position to succeed them.

The Vice President in China. And the son of the aging dictator in North Korea.

Neither of these leaders knows us very well. Neither has ever met with President Obama, or any other US President for that matter.

After a decade of economic growth, China’s economy is slowing, with unemployment growing. North Korea continues to experience starvation among its people, who depend ever increasingly on China for their survival.

China holds a large share of US bonds and is threatening to cash out.

We know little about their potential new leader, and he probably knows little about us.

What if the new leader decided to take back Taiwan and threatened the US with foreclosure on their bonds if we came to the aid of Taiwan?

(This idea has been broached by many pundits already.)

What if they gave North Korea the go ahead to invade South Korea?

Would the US pull in our horns as the Japanese thought we would do in Pearl Harbor (admittedly US territory)?

Or, would we label this blackmail, and defend Taiwan and South Korea as fortresses of Capitalism against Communist domination of Asia.

Surely, Japan and the rest of Asia would watch our reaction very carefully.

If Taiwan and South Korea fell, would the rest of Asia be far beyond? The old “Domino” theory of the post WWII cold war, might rear its ugly head again.

Combine this with the upcoming US election and the fear of a double dip recession. Like existed in the US under Franklyn Roosevelt in the early 1940’s.

Would President Obama try to negotiate his way out of the confrontation as he did with the Republicans in Congress…To the displeasure of many Americans?

Or…would he prefer to run as a wartime President defending the US against Communist aggression?

I know this is entirely out of character for him.

But, so was sending more troops to Afghaistan.

Would he use this an opportunity to pull troops out of the unpopular wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, to send them to Asia? Would he force the Republicans to abandon their opposition to him and rally behind this new war threat? Middle America might think to do otherwise would be treason.

I sure hope he has a clear strategy in mind.

And….has sent Vice President Biden to China to inform the soon to be new President of China, exactly how the US in general and the President, in particular, would respond to Chinese aggression in Asia. EXACTLY…No doubts.

If Vice President Biden can carry this message clearly and directly, but not belligerently, his visit may go down as truly historic. He has the opportunity to leave a lasting legacy to himself and to the Obama administration. I surely hope he does.

For, I feel this is the only path to avoiding WWIII in Asia.

On Going Downhill

When I celebrated my 50th birthday, I began hearing how I was "Over the Hill" and "Going Downhill". At first it bothered me. Downhill seemed some how bad.
Now in my 70's it does not seem so bad.
On a recent walk, I skipped one Metro stop to get on another about a half mile away....All DOWNHILL. Not sharply down hill, but definitely, .....down.
It was a pleasure.... Much better than walking...UPHILL.
I live almost equally distant from two other Metro stops. I consistently walk down hill to one and then, upon returning, get off the uphill stop, to walk down hill back to my apartment.

So...going DOWNHILL is not so bad.

If at 50, people told me I had an UPHILL life ahead of me, I would have been saddened. Imagine facing an uphill life after 50. Not for me.

So, next time someone tells you that life is all "Downhill" from here, just say thanks...I'll take it.

Alan's Choice

Recently, I criticized President Obama for not offering a debt reduction plan of his own.

So, here is what I would have done.

In short, I would have offered the Simpson-Bowles Commission plan, or at least some version of it.

President Obama set up this Commission, unilaterally, after Congressed passed on that option. That, in itself, showed some leadership.

But, after his own Commission came out with their recommendation, he ignored it.

Yes, the plan was quite controversial. It took hits from both sides of the political spectrum. That’s what historic plans do. But, it offered to solve the problem. The Ryan Plan, which came much later, was also controversial. But, Ryan had the resolve to submit it. So, it is now known as the Ryan Plan. I did not like it. But, I respect him for offering it.

Yes, there were things in the S-B Plan that would have hurt me individually. Although, I must admit that I have forgotten the details. But, I remember that NARFE was upset with several elements. I also think it did away with the home loan interest deduction. That would cost me about $7,000/yr/. And hurt the value of my condo.

But, it seemed balanced…And it solved the problem.

Well before the full crisis hit.

If I were in President Obama’s place, I would have called in my most trusted economic advisors and asked them if any tweaks were in order. TWEAKS, I said, not full modifications.

Then I would have decided which to accept and which to reject. I would make that decision, not another committee or Congressional collection. Just ME.

Then, I would have invited the leaders of both houses of Congress to see MY Bill, and asked for them to submit it to their individual chambers for debate, and, hopefully, passage.

It would clearly be MY plan.

If these leaders declined to propose it, I would have gone around them until I found someone in each chamber to, at least, bring it up.

I think the pressure of public opinion would have forced it to be introduced for debate.

Then, I would have taken my show directly to the people. I would have delivered a prime time address. A passionate address.

Then, I would have gone on the road.

I would have staked the full future of my administration on passage of this Bill.

I would have proudly called it the Obama Plan for Fiscal Recovery.

OK, I would have been willing to accept some tweaks. But, not wholesale modifications.

If the Bill passed Congress, of course, I would have gladly signed it.

But, if it failed, or was filibustered, I would have, again, taken my case to the people.

I would have said that I tried and asked the opposition to come forward with their plan.

My (Alan’s) suspicion is that the Republicans would have been forced into proposing something somewhat similar. Something balanced. Something very different than the unbalanced Ryan Plan. Otherwise they would be labeled as uncompromising extremists.

Even if his plan never got passed, President Obama would have had something to run on in 2012. Something he could have said would have pulled the economy out of its malaise. Even if that could not have been proven, it would have looked good to all those unemployed and their friends.

This is LEADERSHIP.

Now

So, what can President Obama do now to recapture the initiative?

Introduce an updated version of the S-B Plan!!!! A version that has the benefit of a year or so to percolate. But, essentially the same plan.

It is too late to submit it to Congress for direct approval. That chance has been lost forever.

But, instead, I would offer it to this select Congressional Committee that has been mandated in the present legislation, as a starting point for their plan. I would make it clear that I would not accept anything from them that was not balanced. This way their plan would have some elements of MY plan. Maybe not MY plan completely. But enough of MY plan that I could claim some pride of ownership.

If this Committee, or some elements of this Committee, refused to come forward with a balanced plan, I would veto anything else they proposed. Yes…VETO it.

And accept the fallback, automaric plan. That is hardly balanced. But, it is the law of the

the land as a fallback.

Then I would see how the chips play out.

If the economy somehow improves through job creation, I would enjoy the glow and run on a "Stay The Course" platform.

I do not think things will improve. If they do not, I could say that if Congress had followed MY plan, things would already be improving.

At least, I would have an economic plan to run on.

That would show leadership. It is not too late.

Obama's Choice

The Dept Extension Bill has been signed.

By substantial majoritew in both houses of Congress.

Yet, it seems NOBODY likes it.

On the right, many are saying that little real debt reduction was included. Surely not enough to satisfy many of them. Whether it really leads to real debt reduction, or not, does not matter. They are just unhappy now.

On the left, many are saying that their principle of tax fairness had been abandoned.

Whether tax modification ever creeps into the final picture, or not, is unclear. But, for now it does not appear to be the case. And the left is mad. Or should I say gravely disappointed.

Even many middle grounders are worried.

Yes, a debt crisis has been avoided. But, at what cost? And for what gain?

The cost may be jobs and the economy.

A reduction in government spending, will have to remove money from the economy.

How much is unclear. But, money produces jobs. And less money costs jobs.

The key on jobs is how businesses will respond to this compromise.

If business people interpret it as a step in the right direction, maybe they will open up and start employing more people.

To be honest, I doubt it.

If you were a small business owner, would you take your excess cash and invest it in more production? Or, would you invest it in less risky places? Or, would you just sit on it and wait? I would just wait. But, then again, I was a salaried employee all my life. How do I know how business people’s minds work.

And, what has been gained by this bill?

Yes, the ability to borrow enough money to keep the government operating, has been provided. There will be no default.

Debts will all be met.

All Government employees will be paid. All who keep their jobs that is….

All retirees, incl. Social Security recipients, will get their checks.

All loan holders will be paid.

Maybe…and this is not clear….theUS will keep its AAA rating

And.maybe…again….interest rates will stay low.

The general public…The Voters next year….Do not know what any of this means. Government officials, and most learned economists were aghast at the prospect of a government default. But, the average person does not understand this at all.

He or She understands if they have no job. Or if their child, or parent, or sibling, or friend, has no job. But, they do not understand much else.

Even the Economists are divided.

Think about how many in the vast middle have a friend, sibling, child or parent with no job. Almost 10% of the population is officially unemployed. And more are unoffically out of work. Think of how this spreads to all their friends, siblings, parents and children. The numbers are probably more than 50% of the population overall. How many of you are in that category?

How will they all feel if further jobs are lost or in jeopardy and government workers, and retirees (incl Social Security recipients), continue to draw checks? Everybody knows someone on Social Security. So, nobody wants them to starve. But, in a me first world, jobs count more than sympathy.

So, how does President Obama come out on all of this?

At this very early moment, I cannot see how he looks good.

His opposition thinks of him as weak.

His base thinks they have been abandoned.

The vast middle??? Well only polls will tell.

But based on the discussion above, they cannot be happy with things.

I think he did not show leadership in a time of crisis. His remarks were muted. He compromised on everything. And he never offered his own plan.

I do not say unequivocally that he was wrong.

Great leaders often have to do things they think correct even if it costs them in the short turn. Only history can tell if compromise was the right path here.

And even history is rarely clear about these things.

So a President has to do what he (Or she, some day) thinks is best.

President Obama made the choice to compromise. I think that is his natural inclination.

Would I have made the same choice?

Well, of course, he knows much more than than I do. I hope......

But, from where I stand now….No….

I would have offered a plan of shared contributions. Some tax cuts, some cost reductions and even some cost increases where I thought investments were needed. All things he vaguely talked about but never offered in a definite plan.

Instead, he left it to Congressional leaders to offer their plans. Eventually, they got one to pass. But, nothing that he can call HIS plan.

That is not leadership.

I think the country needs a President who leads. Not one who compromises.

One who offers his own plan. Not one who relies on others’ plans.

So, will I vote for him next time? Likely…..

There appears little other choice for me.

Even with my doubts, there appears no Republican on the horizon whom I could back.

And several that truly scare me.

But, if a charismatic, truly independent, candidate surfaces. One with creative ideas.

One who puts forward real plans.

I would be open to listening.

I think the Congress will go all Republican next time.

So, if President Obama wins, there will be divided government.

President Obama, will compromise. That is his natural tendency. And in a lame duck term, he no longer has to worry about his base. The end result will be that legislation will move to the right.

Not a good outcome in my mind.

So, why not a charismatic, independent?

If we are to have divided government anyway, why not have an independent thinker?

Does anybody know one?????

And there, President Obama, lies your biggest risk.

If I, a lifelong Democrat, is considering alternatives, can the uncommitted middle think otherwise?

I am unsure what President Obama can do now to recapture the leadership appearance he once showed.

But, he better get started…..