Afghanistan

I walked to a Climate Change lecture downtown today.
So, I had lots of time to think about things....Like Afghanistan.

I sure hope that President Obama knows more about this than i do.
But, from my limited viewpoint (and I have read and attended lectures on this) I think it is hopeless.
I have heard estimate that it will take upwards of a million Afghan Militia/Police to establish central government rule there. Even if this is possible altogether. In recent times, anyway, there has never been an effective central government anywhere outside Kabul and, maybe a few other cities. The countryside has been governed by tribal chiefs, even during the brief Taliban days. With low pay for the government soldiers, graft will run amok. Soldiers will be in the employ of local chiefs as much, if not more than by the central government.
So, what will these chiefs do with their power?
Some will let the Taliban rule. Others will become safe havens for Al Qaida. But, most will just be local fiefdoms. These local chiefs just want what is best for them. Some might even have the best interests of their people at heart.
So, whats so bad about local rule?

OK...back to President Obama's plan. I can only hope that two months of briefings have given him better insight than I have. I worked hard for his election because I had confidence in his basic intelligence to solve very complicated problems.
I guess I will give him the benefit of the doubt....What alternative do I have?

So...what do I think will happen?
I think in June, President Obama will voice confidence that things are getting better....But...That more needs to be done. So, the troops need to stay.
I think he will call for reviews on progress every six months.

Each time, he will show confidence and ask for six months more time.

This will go on until we approach his re-election campaign,
Then, I predict, he will declare victory and begin bringing the troops home.
I hope it is true victory, but I doubt it.

So, what about his re-election prospects?
Some said his Afghan policy was a road to a one term presidency. For now, I hope not.
Too many other things ride on a continued Democratic Presidency....And Democratic majorities in Congress.

OK...enough for now.
Any comments?
Alan