Obama's Choice

The Dept Extension Bill has been signed.

By substantial majoritew in both houses of Congress.

Yet, it seems NOBODY likes it.

On the right, many are saying that little real debt reduction was included. Surely not enough to satisfy many of them. Whether it really leads to real debt reduction, or not, does not matter. They are just unhappy now.

On the left, many are saying that their principle of tax fairness had been abandoned.

Whether tax modification ever creeps into the final picture, or not, is unclear. But, for now it does not appear to be the case. And the left is mad. Or should I say gravely disappointed.

Even many middle grounders are worried.

Yes, a debt crisis has been avoided. But, at what cost? And for what gain?

The cost may be jobs and the economy.

A reduction in government spending, will have to remove money from the economy.

How much is unclear. But, money produces jobs. And less money costs jobs.

The key on jobs is how businesses will respond to this compromise.

If business people interpret it as a step in the right direction, maybe they will open up and start employing more people.

To be honest, I doubt it.

If you were a small business owner, would you take your excess cash and invest it in more production? Or, would you invest it in less risky places? Or, would you just sit on it and wait? I would just wait. But, then again, I was a salaried employee all my life. How do I know how business people’s minds work.

And, what has been gained by this bill?

Yes, the ability to borrow enough money to keep the government operating, has been provided. There will be no default.

Debts will all be met.

All Government employees will be paid. All who keep their jobs that is….

All retirees, incl. Social Security recipients, will get their checks.

All loan holders will be paid.

Maybe…and this is not clear….theUS will keep its AAA rating

And.maybe…again….interest rates will stay low.

The general public…The Voters next year….Do not know what any of this means. Government officials, and most learned economists were aghast at the prospect of a government default. But, the average person does not understand this at all.

He or She understands if they have no job. Or if their child, or parent, or sibling, or friend, has no job. But, they do not understand much else.

Even the Economists are divided.

Think about how many in the vast middle have a friend, sibling, child or parent with no job. Almost 10% of the population is officially unemployed. And more are unoffically out of work. Think of how this spreads to all their friends, siblings, parents and children. The numbers are probably more than 50% of the population overall. How many of you are in that category?

How will they all feel if further jobs are lost or in jeopardy and government workers, and retirees (incl Social Security recipients), continue to draw checks? Everybody knows someone on Social Security. So, nobody wants them to starve. But, in a me first world, jobs count more than sympathy.

So, how does President Obama come out on all of this?

At this very early moment, I cannot see how he looks good.

His opposition thinks of him as weak.

His base thinks they have been abandoned.

The vast middle??? Well only polls will tell.

But based on the discussion above, they cannot be happy with things.

I think he did not show leadership in a time of crisis. His remarks were muted. He compromised on everything. And he never offered his own plan.

I do not say unequivocally that he was wrong.

Great leaders often have to do things they think correct even if it costs them in the short turn. Only history can tell if compromise was the right path here.

And even history is rarely clear about these things.

So a President has to do what he (Or she, some day) thinks is best.

President Obama made the choice to compromise. I think that is his natural inclination.

Would I have made the same choice?

Well, of course, he knows much more than than I do. I hope......

But, from where I stand now….No….

I would have offered a plan of shared contributions. Some tax cuts, some cost reductions and even some cost increases where I thought investments were needed. All things he vaguely talked about but never offered in a definite plan.

Instead, he left it to Congressional leaders to offer their plans. Eventually, they got one to pass. But, nothing that he can call HIS plan.

That is not leadership.

I think the country needs a President who leads. Not one who compromises.

One who offers his own plan. Not one who relies on others’ plans.

So, will I vote for him next time? Likely…..

There appears little other choice for me.

Even with my doubts, there appears no Republican on the horizon whom I could back.

And several that truly scare me.

But, if a charismatic, truly independent, candidate surfaces. One with creative ideas.

One who puts forward real plans.

I would be open to listening.

I think the Congress will go all Republican next time.

So, if President Obama wins, there will be divided government.

President Obama, will compromise. That is his natural tendency. And in a lame duck term, he no longer has to worry about his base. The end result will be that legislation will move to the right.

Not a good outcome in my mind.

So, why not a charismatic, independent?

If we are to have divided government anyway, why not have an independent thinker?

Does anybody know one?????

And there, President Obama, lies your biggest risk.

If I, a lifelong Democrat, is considering alternatives, can the uncommitted middle think otherwise?

I am unsure what President Obama can do now to recapture the leadership appearance he once showed.

But, he better get started…..

Victor’s Harvard Graduation Week

What a week it was. Seeing Sara pregnant, witnessing Victor’s graduation, then a great weekend in Vermont. Fabulous!!!!! Now some highlights and details.

As usual, Victor, and his family were great. It is heartwarming how the kids love Sara.

I was very proud of myself for not crying when I saw Sara in her current condition. So radiant, so happy….so pregnant. Yikes, it is really going to happen. I will soon be a grandpa…of a NY Yankees fan…… I did not cry then, but I am getting teary now…..

Having us all together again before the graduation was a reminder of the wonderful time we had at Sara and Victor’s wedding when we all met for the first time. It is heartwarming how close we have become since meeting as relative strangers then. I feel we are now just one big happy family.

But, the main event was the next day. I have been to quite a few college graduations in my lifetime. My own (3), my kids’ (3), friends kids’ (many). But none were like this. A Harvard graduation, particularly at the Kennedy School, is a unique pageant.

Finally, it came time for Victor to actually receive his diploma. Alas, I was not well positioned to capture the event, but I got the essence of it. Of course, Victor is not my actual son. That honor goes to Lolita.

But, pride burst out of my chest (and Sara’s, I assume) anyway.

The rest of that day was a bit of a come down for all of us. Barbara and I, along with Sara and V

ictor, attended the all Harvard address by the female President of Liberia, while the rest of the family rested. She is a sterling example of the success of a Kennedy School graduate. Very stirring. On Friday, Olga-Maria and Marianita took off for Guatemala and the rest of us had a nice dinner at the John Harvard Brew House in Cambridge.

The Saturday departure of Hugo, his family and Lolita for New York City, left the rest of us

to go off on our Vermont weekend. Victor drove a tiring seven hours to Smugglers Notch Resort, with stops along the way for lunch (unforgettable ice cream, in Woodstock) And at Quechee Gorge for beautiful views of the Vermont version of the Grand Canyon. Quite impressive.

Barbara’s cousin, Bill Stritzler, owner of the resort, provided us with a fabulous two-bedroom condo.

Bright and early, for me anyway…around 9am, we set off for our day of local touring. We started with breakfast at the Von Trapp resort. Overpric

ed and not very glamorous, but something we had to do being so close to “The Sound of Music” as we were.

Next came a tour of the Teddy Bear Factory near Burlington. This is the first, and still only, place in the US where they make teddy bears. In every imaginable outfit. I thought of Bunny continually. The tour was great, but alas, no samples.

That had to wait until our next destination, the Ben & Jerry’s Ice CreamFactory.

But on the

way, we realized we were near the tour book’s recommended…..”Al’s French Frys.” Yes that is the spelling. Indeed,

they were great. What else would you expect from Al’s?

Early in our trip, Sara remarked that the Moscosos travel to shop and the Weinsteins travel to eat. And eat we did. Even me, who is rarely hungry, ate anyway.

Last stop before dinner was the Ben & Jerry’s Ice Cream Factory. Being a dairy state, there are many excellent ice cream places. But, there is only one Ben & Jerry’s. The factory is closed on the wee

kend, so the tour was kind of flat. But, we got the full story of how the wh ole thing started and how the stuff is made. And, we got a free sample of their newest flavor. Called the Jimmy Fallon flavor, it was basically vanilla with chocolate covered potato chips and salted pretzels. A combination of ice cream, carbs & salt. Quite good.

In the gift shop, I bought a mouse pad that said…”We came, we saw, we ate….ice cream” The story of our trip.

The B&J visit ended with a stop at the “Flavor Graveyard”, where Barbara found the tombstone of her beloved Ga. Peach. My favorite, Cherry Garcia, is still going strong as the top-selling flavor. V

anilla, the first B&J flavor is still hanging in there at #10. NY Super Fudge Chunk, a long time favorite of both Barbara and me, is #6.

Dinner that night was also memorable. It was with Bill and Viola Stritzler, second cousins of Barbara, whom she had never met before.

They own the resort. It was fascinating to talk with Bill about the resort in particular and the Vermont tourist and food industry in general. I love peeking into other people’s life experiences. He was very open to all my questions. I was very impressed with his people skills, dr

awing Victor and Sara into the conversation by asking them specific, pertinent, questions. Barbara had laryngitis, so I had (!!!!!) to do most of the talking for us. Tough job but somebody had to do it.

When we departed, Bill, seeing Sara pregnant, invited them, and us presumably, to return with the baby for another stay at this family oriented resort. We just might do that.

The trip home started with breakfast with another Stritzler cousin, Suzanne, in Jeffersonville. It was Memorial Day and there was a town parade. It seemed like all 2,000 residents turned out. A truly American experience for Victor.

On the way out of town, we stopped at an antique store. Outside they had a wooden rocking horse that had on it… “Sara and Victor’s baby”. Over much objection from Sara, we bought it for him. A final souvenir of our weekend. I cannot wait to see him on it.

The Cabot Cheese Factory was our last stop in Vermont. Another tour and some more sampling of the product occurred. Good stuff!!!!! It turns out that this cheese is lactose free. So Victor can enjoy it. They are big cheese fans.

Our Tour guide told us all about how they make the cheese

New Hampshire had our final three stops of the trip. The first stop was in Bethlehem, where Barbara’s father was born. That’s Bethlehem, NH, not Palestine!!!!!! It seems that his mother suffered from asthma and had to come to the clean New Hampshire air for the final days of her pregnancy.

On the way out of Bethlehem, we briefly met the son of

Barbara’s friend, Martha Gabriel, David. He was a gracious host. But, we

had to hustle off.

The middle stop in NH was at the time-share I own at the Village of Loon Mountain. I have owned it for about 30 years and only have stayed there once, maybe 25 years ago. Over the years, I have exchanged it for condos all over the world. I was curious to see how mine stacked up. Not very well, in fact. Nice, clean, but quite dreary and very vertical. Three bedrooms on three levels. A

nd no air conditioning. I will likely never stay there. Exchanges will be my use for this. Unless the kids ever want to come for a summer week.

The last stop on our eating weekend was for lobster at Brown’s in Seabrook, NH. Nostalgia for our days in Westford. The lobster is still great….as are the onion rings. Victor and I had lobster while Sara and Barbara had chick

en. Sara prefers chicken and Barbara’s stomach was not up to the melted butter that goes with lobster. Dessert was our final ice cream chance in New England. Mine was a great mocha chip sugar cone. More than anybody should eat, but I was up to the task, with a small assist from Barbara.

We arrived home at S&V’s place around 9:30. Victor drove the whole almost 700 miles. Without his glasses which he somehow lost during the graduation.

The evening ended with pictures of my new, to be, grandson. Sonograms. To be honest, I barely saw much. But, Barbara was ga ga. I will wait for the real thing.

A brief

and inadequate visit to the Peabody natural history museum in Cambridge….and lunch with the kids in a Middle Eastern restaurant, ended the trip.

During my final goodbye hug with Sara, I was finally unable to hold back the tears. Even now my hearts skips a beat as I think about it. This was another “Peak Life Experience” week, as Barbara calls them.

Winter Vacation with AAAAlan, BJ, and the Mick

Three Weeks with Alan, BJ and The Mick. (a play on “Talkin Baseball with Wiiiiillie, Mickey and the Duke”) The Book and the People. Mickey Mantle biography to read and a vacation with Barbara Jane Sirota on the Island of St Martin.

A most enjoyable combination.

Preamble – Dallas for Elizabeth’s Birthday

The outpouring of welcome for us was heartwarming. Barbara’s family has accepted me as their own….And Visa-versa.

It is hard to believe that little Elizabeth is celebrating her 8^th birthday. Always ahead of her time intellectually, she continues to entertain us with her remarks.

And, of course, Rob and Anne were the perfect hosts. The addition of the two grandmothers, Lenore and Eileen, rounded out this wonderful family.

But, now on to the main event, almost three weeks in warm St Martin.

But, wait, one extra stop. Due to bad weather forecast for Dallas on the day of our departure, February 1, we left the night before to stay over in Miami. Good thing we did. Dallas airp[prt was closed for over a day due to ice and snow.

The Miami stop let us relive a bit, Sara’s wedding. Including food at the Jewish deli, Jerry’s.

St Martin – February 1 – 19.

Overall notes about St Martin.

Very friendly natives, from tourist officials and service sales people, to residents on the streets. All smiles and willing to give directions. Alas, some are wrong.. But, their hearts are in the right place.

Speed bumps galore. Nuisances, but necessary to slow down drivers, me included, in towns.

Lots of car washes. Not the automatic ones like home. All hand done ones. Must be a lot of dirty cars here.

Lots of sun, sandy beaches and puffy clouds. Even some warm rain showers.

The water on the Caribbean side gives new meaning to the word aquamarine. The most beautiful color I have ever seen anywhere. Just as scenic as the blue water of the Azure Coast of southern France. I hope the color shows up in my pictures.

Some great, albeit sometimes overpriced, meals, both on the French and Dutch sides. Wonderful French bread, pastries, croissants, hot chocolate and coffee.

And three weeks of reading, but not quite finishing, a biography of Mickey Mantle. Quite an enlightening view of a boyhood hero.

Day 1 Tuesday, 2/1

Arrived late so all we did was get to our room and settle in. B257 at Simpson Bay Resort newly renamed from Pelican Bay Resort. Both the condo owners and the employees objected to the new owners. All of the employees were fired and told they would have to reapply for their jobs….at less pay and with no seniority and few benefits. Their union is suing. Good luck!!!!

Day 2 Wednesday, 2/2

We came here to eat French food. So, day 1 started with breakfast at the local French restaurant, on the grounds of the condo development, “Bon Apetite. A great first chocolate croissant.

Then off to Phillipsburg for our first shopping outing. Really just scouting about. Cameras do not appear to be any great bargains. Oh yes, a French food lunch on Old Street. A favorite from past memories. And, some Belgian chocolates.

Ended the day with dinner at Toppers on the Beach at our resort. Lobster. Fair, but overcooked.

Day 3 Thursday, 2/3

Rental car day. Save, another memory from last visit. Best deal I could negotiate…$170/week, plus $5/day for second driver. But, when we got there, they reduced the price to $162/day, plus half price for second driver. Even without me asking. Now I see on one of the tour maps that they offer a 15% discount. Do I have the nerve to ask for it when I check out? You bet!

Then to Grand Casse for restaurant search. First, lunch at a Lo Lo on the water. Great food at cheap price.

Then, we found an old favorite restaurant, La Marine, had been replaced by Ti Provincale operated by an award winning chef. So, we reserved for dinner at 7:30. By advice of couple we met from Minnasota. Man was an Anderson windows manager. Spent couple hours from about 3 – 5PM on the beach. Cool end of day relaxation. On to Sunset Beach Café for watching sunset. Alas, clouds obscured it.

Day ended with expensive and disappointing dinner at Ti Provincale Alas, his Gold Metal was in 2008. But, the presentation was very impressive. Broad variety of locally caught fish. We had Parrot fish. Light tasting white fish. Only OK and not worth the $100 bill. I knew this was going to be an expensive place.

Day 4 Friday 2/4

Found our favorite French supermarket. Still great. Barbara bought variety of cheeses.

Highlight was a concert by Brothers in Arms at night at Friars Bay. Dirt road to get there. But, we were given free tickets as we reached the front gate. Saved $60. Good thing, because the concert was very loud and not very satisfying to me. But, Barbara liked it. It was an experience witnessing this “happening” with wide variety of mostly French fans across three generations. Lots of cigarette smoking, but no mariuana odor that would be ever present at such a concert in USA.

Day5 Saturday, 2/5

On to our first timeshare condo, a studio apt at Ocean View. We were here last time, maybe even in the very same room, #305. Very simple, but nice patio view of the ocean. Will present great sunset views.

Off to Marigot for dinner on the marina.

But, first ice cream at the Carousel in Simpson Beach. Very creamy.

Walked around the marina in Marigot. We remembered it from last time.

Dinner at ….., where we met nice couple from Cape Cod. He, Dave, had retired from being a lobster wholesaler in Maine. Interesting discussion/education on lobser fishing and wholesaling. Rare example of meeting someone with more interesting career experience than ours. In fact, they never even asked what we did. We got so wrapped up in questions about lobster fishing.

I liked the dinner, good onion soup. But, Barbara was not overly impressed.

But, nice relaxing dinner on the marina with boats and boat people walking bye.

Day 6, Sunday 2/6

Super Bowl Sunday. Number 45. I remember several notable ones.

Number 1 – Green Bay Vs Kansas City. Lombardy won. I remember listening to it on the car radio as Sylvia and I took John Latham to the Phillisburg (Pa, of course) airport. John was a Englisg friend of ours who we met in Falgstaff on one of the MRI field programs. But, I digress.

Number 3 - NY Jets Vs Baltimore. Joe Namath Vs Johnny Unitis. “Broadway Joe” Namath forecast victory against heavily favored Colts. He pulled it off.

Number ???? – NY Giants Vs New England Patriots. Wildcard Giants, under Eli Manning, were long shot underdogs to undefeated Patriots. Miracle catch in late 4^th quarter won for Giants. I watched and rooted from a condo party on one of the islands in the Caribbean.

So, here I am back on a Caribbean island for number 45. It will be interesting to see how it turns out.

But, first our day.

Breakfast, including croissant, on our patio overlooking the ocean. Pretty close to paradise.

Off to Baie Orientale. Orient Beach has “Au Naturale” beach at one end. We went to the other end where we had lunch at the Tiki Hut Bar. Beach was beautiful, but too windy to sit on it.

After a stop at our favorite French market, we went to an orientation briefing at the Sapphire Club, next store to our place. We will be staying at Sapphire next week. Very poor orientation, but we got a couple of free fruit punches at the bar. While drinking them, we met an interesting couple from Fresno, Ca (her) and Portland, OR (Him). Both doctors who will be going to his child’s house on….Newark Street, in Cleveland Park on Monday. Small world, indeed.

Finally, the Super Bowl at the restaurant at our place. We entered the pool for five selections, at $2 each. Barbara picked the slots, which included the upper left and lower right. Well, upper left came out to be Packers 1 and Steelers 0. In case you remember, the half time score was Packers 21, Steelers 10, after a half ending touchdown drive by the Steelers. We were rooting for the Packers overall, but the Steelers to score the touchdown that won the half time payoff ($50) for us. Good return on our $10 investment. I pay, Barbara picks, we win. Great combo. Good picking Barbara.

The last time I won such a pool was one time on a time share vacation in the Bahamas, when the slot we picked for Sara won. It was the week of the shuttle Columbia launch disaster. I remember both the disaster and Sara’s winning. But, nothing else about that vacation.

BTW, the Packers won 31 – 25. If they had scored one more field goal, we would have also won the game ending score with one of our other picks. But, alas, we had to settle for just $50. Will spend it (plus another $50) to splurge on a big dinner on the French side.

Day 7 –Monday 2/7

Barbara did water aerobics at our neighboring condo/hotel, called Sapphire. While she was occupied there, I was able to hop on their wifi connection. Finally got a sold connection to allow me to clean out my e-mail.

Started out in the car, to find flat tire. Not totally flat, so it could be pumped up until we could get it fixed at the car rental place. No big deal. Turned out it was a nail that had to be removed and plugged. While waiting, I had an interesting conversation with the manager of the car rental place. He claims he was a banker in NYC, who took a buyout when his bank was bought. Took a Caribbean vacation, during which he met a woman who soon gave him his first child. So he settled here. That child is now 17 years old. Nice story,,,but, is it true or just a dream. Who knows.

Afternoon trip to Phillipsburg to find the tourist office. Alas, not much help. A couple of hours shopping in Phillipsburg. No tour boats in, so it was a leisurely outing. Found a stone for Mira’s bracelet.

Walked a bit on the boardwalk. Cement version of boardwalks in US. Nice views of the Great Bay.

Nice chilling out at the lounge at the Holiday House Hotel. No pressure to buy any drinks.

Finally dinner at their restaurant, Ocean Lounge. Terrific fixed price menu of chicken ceaser salad, sea bass and dark chocolate suffle with ice cream. Add excellent bread, good onion soup, led to our best dinner of the trip so far.

A bit of a stressful ride back from Phillipsburg to our condo on Cupecoy. Probably a 10 mile drive. But lots of oncoming cars with bright lights and narrow, curved roads. But, we made it safely.

Day 8 Tuesday – 2/8

One week in St Martins. We arrived last Tuesday night.

Day started with another relaxing breakfast on our patio. Smoked salmon, French cream cheese, chocolate croissant. Could life be any better?

Then off on our day, alas, not before noon, with a trip to the new Weston Hotel on Dawn Beach. But, not before a stop in Simpson Bay for a couple of croissants for tomorrow’s breakfast and a chicken sandwich for later today. At a French bakery on in Simpson Bay. The sandwich turned out to be superb.

The Weston turned out to be quite new and modern with a very grand swimming pool and beach. The restaurant was charming. We had lunch there. Then spent about a half hour on Dawn Beach. Too windy to really enjoy this very picturesque beach.

On to Oyster Bay Marina for a quick stop to see lots of yachts. Lots of rich people here, with big marinas here, at Simpson Bay and at Marigot, to mention just three.

Last stop was the Tuesday street fair and dinner in Grand Casse. The fair was a mix of food, mostly junk trinkets and jewelry, and a few special things.

Dinner was at La Carraibe Restaurant. I had excellent onion soup and Barbara had
“The best red snapper I ever had”. It was in cream sause with excellent veggies. So, I guess this chef, who is the same one as was once at the best French restaurant in France, that our friends, the Fields love. Not a bad recommendation. It lived up to it.

The evening ended with a good chocolate crepe at another restaurant.

Why do all these entries focus on food? Well, isn’t that what we came here for?

Day 9 Wednesday 2/9

Happy Birthday Sara. Wish you and Victor were here.

Another breakfast on our patio followed by water aerobics for Barbara and e-mail for me. I shoulkd be using the gym at the Sappire. But it is poor and I am lazy. Heck, I am on vacation.

Finally off to Marigo for their Wednesday market. Similar to the one last night in Grand Casse, but bigger and better. Very colorful.

Lunch at Bistro Sur La Mer at the port. Excellent pizza.

On the way home, we discovered a French supermarked called “US Market”. We were cynical, but it had great selection of food.

Dinner was at our Condo development. BBQ Ribs night. All you could eat for $12. Alas, lost on me as I eat little portions. Bob Anderson would have eaten them out of food. We enjoyed a video of a Jimmy Buffet concert on Anguilla, a neighboring island that we are off to tomorrow. The Buffet songs, “Cheesburger in Paradise” and “Margaretaville” brought back memories of a past vacation with the Andersons (both NY and Wa) and the Gemmills. The ribs were great and the company was enjoyable.

Day 10 Thursday 2/10

Happy birthday in memorium to my father. He always joked Sara about her being a day older than him. It is nice to think about my parents once in a while. Wonderful, loving parents they were. But, alas, I digress.

Anguilla day. Off to the ferry from Marigo.

Anguilla was a rather disappointing trip. Heavy sea going over, led to some quisinass for both of us.

Upon getting there, we decided to rent a car to tour the island on our own. As a previously British colony, they have left side roads. And we had a right side driver car. I immediately hit a curb at the gas station and blew out the left front tire. After negotiation with the car rental agency, we settled on me paying for half of a new tire, $50. Ah well, we got a different car with left hand drive. Much better to judge the curbs, although we never saw any others, as this is a not bery built up island.

The island turned out to be very dull. We saw a few expensive hotel and a few nice beaches. One hotel complex was composed of 4 villas. Each accommodating about a dozen or so people. Comes with its own chef. Only cost $40,00 per WEEK. Nice to money. The best views were of Meads Beach from the Frangipani Hotel. Very nice. But, nothing any better than right here on St Martins. The $180 expense, for ferry ride, entry and departure taxes and the car, was definitely not worth it.

Upon returning, we showered and went to eat locally at an Italien restaurant called “La Gondola”. Very good Veal Milanese.

We finished the day at the Casino Royale in Maho. I find gambling a turn off. The blackjack tables are up to $5 minimum and the machines are boring to me. So, I just walked around and looked while Barbara played to penny machines.

Day 11 Friday 2/11

Off to the Butterfly Farm. They were in rare, open wing, form. Lots of different kinds. I will have to go to their site to ID the ones I caught.

Next was a stay on the beach at Baie Orientale’s Gallion Beach. A beautiful, family oriented, beach. Lots of French families. Barbara loved the kids. We spent a lovely 2+ hours on the beach. Even went into the water, but only ankle deep.

Dinner was back in Phillipsburg, at the Greenhouse. They have a lobster Mania on Fridays. $19.95/lb. It is Caribbean lobster, which is almost all tail. Very scrawny claws. We shared an almost 2lb one. A bit tougher than New England lobster, but still very good.

After another trying ride home from Phillipsburg, we tried to find a comedy night performance in Sandy Ground, on the French side. But, alas, we had the wrong night. So, instead we had to settle for Magnum Bar ice cream in our room. Why can we not find these in the US. White chocolate covered ice cream bar. We remember them from England. You would think somebody in the US would either import them, or copy the idea. Hmmmm, maybe there is a business there. Shades of imported llamas from Bolivia. But, you cannot store ice cream bars in your basement storage place. Anybody want to buy about 100 stuffed llamas from Bolivia?

Tomorrow we move over to Sapphire for the final week of our stay.

Day 12 Saturday 2/12

Moving day. This place, the Sapphire Club, is much more upscale than the Ocean Clubs. Very lasrge, elaborate, one bedroom condo. Maybe the most elaborate 1BR RCI we have ever had. But lousy service. Clearly faded glory. The hallway had a stale cigarette smell, which showed a trace in the room. They sprayed to cover the odor, but just barely. 4 Cup coffee maker, no placemats, no pothoders, no dish towels….and little desire on the part of the staff to do anything about it. One staff told us that management is cutting corners on everything.

But, we can live with it. Nice roomy place, two TV’s, one flat screen. Many channels.

Today we looked at the new condo development across the road called Porto Cupecoy. Very new (4 years) and very upscale. Two bedroom units start at about $½ million(2 BR) and go up to almost $3million for a 4 bedroom. Condo fees can be as high as $1300/month. Makes Woodley Park Towers seem cheap.

After that, we explored local beaches. First Cupecoy, where there were some “au natural” bathers.

Then on to Mullet Bay, were we spent a couple of hours, including our first swim, watching a sunset. Alas, clouds again spoiled the view.

We had dinner in a local French restaurant called Montmartre. Where I had my best onion soup so far. Even creamy. Very tasty.but only so-so shrimp fpr Barbara.

We ended the night in a local casino. The best part was a great creperie, where I had what could have been the best nutella crepe I ever had. When we asked him what he was going to do for Valentines Day, the French waiter told us about his girlfriend from Bolivia. She is at the customer service desk at the casino. We met her and spoke a bit about Bolivia. She spoke perfect English. She was from Santa Cruz. Of course, we told her about Sara and La Paz.

Day 13 Sunday 2/13

Off to “Art in the Park” More like junk in the park. But, saving grace was a colorful marching drum group. Variety of ages of kids, colorfully dressed. They call themselves “New Generation”.

A time killing walk through Phillipsburg. Things are rather dull on Sundays there. If I was on a ship with a port stop here today, I would be disappointed.

Saving graces for the day were the evening events.

First a sunset cruise. Free from the Jeff B site. In fact, the only benefit for our $49 annual membership. It was called “Celine” A very relaxing cruise around Simpson Lagoon, annotated by the owner, Neil.

Then on to Grand Casse for our best, albeit most expensive, meal of the trip. At “Le Presseur”, a very romantic setting in an old house. Great presentation and great basting fish. Soup course was a collection of three soups, onion, pea and lobster Bisque. All excellent. The next course was a collection of cold fish, two different lobsters (small) , shrimp and a couple of others. All excellent again. Next course was a selection of four fish, each on top of different mashed potatoes. Again, excellent. Finally, desert. One of the best crème brulle we have ever had, plus a pink, hand made marshmallow. Following the meal, we had a visit by the chef himself. Frank Mear from Brest, France. A nice close to an excellent meal.

Out gourmet friends, the Fields would have loved this place. Our other friends and relative, normal eaters like us, would have enjoyed it completely like we did.

Hopefully, we get to share this experience with some of them.

But, right outside was a crepe stand. Full as I was, I could not pass up a chocolate crepe. Only so so. But a French crepe can never be bad.

Much too much food this night. But, time is running out for French food.

Day 14 Monday 2/14

Happy Valentines Day. The hottest day yet. Surely too hot for the beach, at least during mid day.

First stop was Marigo, where we had crepes for lunch. First savory crepe, seafood. And, of course, a sweet one, but only sugar. Both very satisfying.

The Museum in Marigo was quite informative on the island’s geology, agriculture, sea life and history. Soon I will lnow enough to put up my shingle as a tour guide for the cruise ships. Not a bad way to spend a winter. Even with onloy a little business, I could take my rent off my income tax. Would the IRS buy that?

Valentines dinner at “Temptations” Excellent lamb chops. Not exactly local food, but very good anyway. Nice Valentines dinner.

Day 15 Tuesday 2/15

On the home stretch. Beginning to run out of breakfast things. A bit too early.

Nothing very special today.

Started out getting the suitcase fixed,,in Phillipsburg. Same place as last time. Good to see that some things do not chanhe. Zipper repair. $4. Quite reasonable.

The high scenic point of the day was viewing the Atlantic coast at Guana Bay and Pointe Blanche. Both on the dutch side, even if Pointe Blanche sounds French. The water on this side is rough with wuch white surf and very blue color. Much different from the aquamarine, still water on the Caribbean side.

Dinner was at “Skipjack’s”, a well know sea food place in Simpson Bay. We had their Caribbean lobster. All tail, but VERY good.

Day 16 Wednesday 2/16

Slow day today. Running out of must see sites.

Today it was the Radison Resort on Anse Marcel, way up north. The trip was barely worth it. The high point was the purchase of a spectacular photobook of the beaches from the air. It puts my pictures in proper perspective….Amateur. But, of course mine are not from a plane. But, mine will be available for quick viewing. The ones in the book will have to await a visit to us in Washington.

Dinner again was the rib night at Ocean Clubs. Our dinner mates this time included the warden at a county prison near Albany, NY. Another interesting exploration of that career. His prison had 1,000 inmates. He, the warden earned $80,000. A guard earned $40,000 max.

Day 17 Thursday 2/17

Loterie Farm and Oic Paradise were the main outing today.

As I now remember it from last time, there were vnot much. Lots of green in an otherwise blue and white island is its main feature.

Then a return trip to the Butterfly Farm for several more pictures.

Next, an afternoon on the beach at Le Gallion. Relaxation and a swim. Nice, calm, warm water.

Dinner was at Tropicana on the marina in Marigo. The main dish, a duck sheppards pie, was only so-so.

But, the apitizers, escargo for Barbara and onion soup for me, were superb. And the desert, a chocolate/coffee combination was also great. But, the coup de grasse was the complimentary, hand made, rum. I am not a big drinker. But, this was truly noteworthy. I had two shot classes full. Barbara took due note.

We ended the day with a crepe stop in the….at the Atlantis Casino. Might have been my last crepe stop of the trip. Both the waiter, Pierre, and his girlfriend….. were there. He from France, she from Bolivia. Meeting and falling in love (?) in St Martin. There must be a movie there somewhere.

Day 18 Friday 2/18

Last full day. Started with Barbara’s last water aerobics. Thus, we did not get started until about 1PM. The first stop was the highest spot on the island, called {ic Paradise. Once there, I remember the scenery was hardly worth the climp up for my underpowered car. On the way down, we stopped at Lotterrie Farm for lunch. Another bit disappointing memory from last time.

Spent most of the afternoon on the beach at Bay Rouge, Red Bay. Nice, peaceful afternoon watching the waves and trying (unsuccessfully) to finish my biography of Mickey Mantle.

On the way to our final meal, we finally got to see, and photograph, our first sunset. I fittingly called it the sunset of our vacation.

The final meal was quite an experience. It was back in Phillipsburg at a restaurant called “L’escargot”. The reason we went there was for their floor show…Drag. Quite an experience indeed. We did it last time, so this time was not quite as surprising. The whole experience, dinner and show, blew the budget to the tune of about $190. But, what the heck, it was out last night. We shared a table with a couple from Connecticut. He a neural surgeon and she a nurse. Another interesting career to discuss. We have had many such interesting dinner discussions on this trip.

Day 19 2/19

Getaway day. The only rainy, almost cool, day of the vacation. Good thing we did not have beaches to visit.

After one last crepe at “Zee Best”, we boarded the plane at about 4PM. And sat on the runway for over an hour. It rained a lot during the day. So, planes were stacked up to take off on the one runway at the airport.

Fprtunately, my seat neighbor was an interesting man. Another doctor, but this time an OB/GYN, from Monroe, Louisiana. Couldn’t be much different life experience than that. He was as interested in my career, and life, as I was in his. It made the time pass quickly.

As I write this, I hope we make our connection in Miami.

Return to Dallas.

This time the main focus is the birthday of Alexandra (Alie). Her second one. How considerate of Anne and Rob to have her arrive on the back end of our normal time in the Caribbean.

Rob and Elizabeth were off skiing when we arrived. Gave us time to appreciate Anne and Alexandra alone.

On our last full day there, I was able (by the good graces of Anne) to visit the gravesite and one time home of Mickey Mantle in North Dallas. A fitting end to the Mickey part of this vacation.

Rob and Elizabeth arrive the last night we were there. A nice sendoff.

Home

Well, here we are back home. Lots of mail to catch up on.

Barbara goes to work on Wednesday and I prepare for the start of my Spring tour season.

Back to the real world after a fabulous, albeit expensive, 2011 winter vacation.

January West Coast Trip

In a word,,,,It was FABULOUS.
Now the details

San Francisco.
Of course, this was the reason for the trip altogether.
To visit one of my beloved daughters, Mira.
And, as a bonus, I got to see cousin Sandra and meet Eric (twice, in fact). They looked so happy together.
And, of course, there were 5 Boudins stops, many desserts, several great meals....and...a busmans holiday touring around San Francisco. Mira was a great hostess. I am impressed by how much of San Francisco she knows after only a bit over one year there. She really loves the place. Who wouldn't? But, there is the fog and wind...and the hills.
But, for me, most of the weather was fine...and somehow, I was able to navigate the hills.
Terrific bookends to my trip.

Monterey.
And the nostagia began. What a better place to start that than staying with Andy and Antonette Goroch. That first night dinner brought back memories of dinners past with the 3 generation Goroch family. Sadly, Antonette's parents are gone and the kids were not in town....And they no longer live in the big house in Salinas. But...dinner with them, just the three of us, still brought back memories. Good friends do that.
But, I am getting ahead of myself. Before that dinner, I was fortunate to catch the Romeros, John and Sandy, at home before a trip south to visit Jamie and her family. It was great to catch up with them and find out the latest with Cassie and Jamie. Both happily married with children. Like all of my friends I visited during this trip, the Romeros remain close to their kids and their famiilies. Just wonderful.
The next day, Monday, was jam packed. Breakfast at the Gorochs', a very warmly received visit with Simon Chang at NRL,Monterey (Simon's obvious pride in the success of his lab brought back memories of my time there), a visit as guests of the Gorochs to the Monterey Bay Aquarium (Where I particularlty enjoyed the sea horse exhibit.), a too brief visit with Bill and Mimi Schram (no time for our normal politics dialog) and....finally...a dinner with so many of my long lost NEPRF friends (Set up by Bill Schramm). Some I had not seen for 25+ years since I left in 1983. They looked just as I remembered them. I wonder if they felt likewise about me. Does time really stand still? Or is it only in the mind of the beholder?

What would a trip to Monterey be without a stop at the Naval Postgraduate School? Incomplete... So, on Tuesday, we set off for NPS. Lucky for me, we encountered Ken Davidson outside Herman Hall. So, we had lunch there with him and colleagues. It brought back memories of my first ever visit to Monterey on my interview trip, during which I had Friday night dinner at Herman Hall (Crab night) as the guests of Pete and Marge Pettitt. It was nice to see Ken healthy and still working, albeit as Retired Annuitant. Whatever that means. I think it limits him to half time. But, I bet they get full time work from him.
Ken took us back to the Meteorology Department. There, I had the good fortune to see Rus Elsbury in his office. We reminisced about the field program he worked on under ONR funding while I was at ONR. It was nice to see him still at work (Also as a Retired Annuitant) on the latest project under ONR sponsoirship on typhoon formation and structure. It looks like the forecast path problem has been solved enough to move on to structure (intensity, really). Like all of them, Russ looked just like I remember him.

I spent some of my happiest and most productive professional years in Monterey. It was nostalgic to return.

Seattle
After a quicjk overnight in San Francisco....including a Boudins stop, it was off to Seattle to visit Bob and Nancy Anderson. To reminisce about the Penn State days. I stayed at what I call their "Who's a thunk it" house. Who would have thought that I would know someone with a house on Lake Washington, across from Bill Gates....OK, so it is not DIRECTLY across. But, it is still a 3500 sq st house on Lake Wasington. Thank you Microsoft. Could not happened to a nicer couple.
The Andersions are a thoroughly contented couple. Three happily married boys, four granchildren who they see regularly, and...their health. Yes, with aches and pains and old(er) age maladies, But, after a scare with Nancy's breast cancer, they appear healthy. Alas, I did not get to see Dave and Patty, who live in Portland. But, I was the guest of the 4 M's (Matt, Michelle), Mike and Meghan) as they bid Bob a happy 71st birthday. Happy Birthday Bob, I am right behind you on April 7th,
A bonus was seeing Matt in his element, at the fire station. I will long remember the "Uncle Tom" story. Matt ius a great story teller.
And there are the grandkids. I bonded with all four. I ralked about science fair projects with Hannah (Hers related to electricity). I let Brady use my camera for family pictures (He did quite a nice job, in fact).
I completey bonded with Simon as we went to the Falls and he wanted me ("Winalsten") to take him to the bathroon. And finally little Elliot, almost my name if my maternal grandfather had not died while my mother was still in the hoppital for my birth. It was fun holding little Elliott in my arm as I once held Mira and Sara many years ago.
And, lest I not forget the long evening discussions with Bob and Nancy, sometimes until 1AM. Politics, religion, PSU ......All stimulating.
It is hard, unfair really, to rank my friends. But, Bob and Nancy have to rank high up there.
If only things had worked out differently and they never moved from DC, I would see them as often as I see Bill and Francine Gemmill But, alas they did to find a happy life in Seattle.

Fresno
From urbane Seattle and San Francusco to the Central California town of Fresno. Unknown to me was just how big and developed Fresno really is. With a city population of 500,000 and a metro one of over 750,000, Fresno isthe third largest metro area in Californa. Who knew???
And right in the thick of it reside Fred and Rosie Clark. And do I mean righrt in the thick of it. Stay tuned.
I saw, in fact, five members of the Clark family in Fresno. Cricket, who I once held on my shoulders watching indian dances at the Grand Canyou, is now a fully grown woman. Donna, likewiss young when I last met her, remembered my picture taking. Kenny, living a few short houses away came by twice. I saw them all together for lunch the one day I was there. They all welcomed me as a long lost relative. Just as Rosie welcomed that naieve, somewhat homesick, eastener in Pasadena, lo those long years ago. Cam I ever forget the drunken binge Rosie and I went on one night in Flagstaff as Fred looked on....disapprovingly...I think.
I was particularly inpressed with the diverse life the Clarks have carved out for themselves in Fresno. They have traveled worldwide as Fred has sold and installed weather radars in such exotic places as Kenya , India and Israel, to name just three. I have travels much myself, but never to Kenya not India, in fact. They have invested wisely in houses and apartment developments in Fresno, giving much to the community they so obviously love. As leaders of the citywide Neighborhood Watch program, they know virtually every policeperson on the Fresno force. Their pride in Fresno was apparent as Fred and Cricket showed me around the main police station and Rozie (Roz as they call her) presided over a Neighborghood Watch meeting my first night there. A good spaghetti dish was avaialble for the taking, and I took two portions.
One day is hardly enough to see Fresno and environs. But, we did get a chance to see some of the snow country...where Fred has once installed cloud seeding instrumentation, in fact. Beautiful. I look forward to returning.
Pasadena was my first forey out west. I will always remember my MRI "family". But, first and foremost, I will remember the warm comfort Rosie Clark extended to me. All of the Clarks did likewise on this brief visit.

So, here I am back in Washington the day after my return home. I have wonderful memories of this thre week visit to the west coast.
Thank you, Mira, for living in San Francisco.
And, thank the rest of you for welcoming me so warmly.
It was great...or as I said at the outset......FABULOUS.

Election Prospects in 2012

OK, here goes with my forecast for the 2012 elections.
Fools rush in, where angels fear to tread. Am I a fool? Time will tell.

First, the Congress
Two factors are relevant in the House. First is the significant lead the Republican already have. It is 50, with one still to be decided..
Second is redistricting as a result of the recent Census. In this past election, the Republicans won majorities in many state Assemblies and even more Governorships. So, redistricting will go largely their way. One estimate I heard was the elimination of 11 Democrat districts.

So, do the arithmetic…. 50 + 11 = 61. The 63 swing for the Republican was viewed as a landslide. A 61 swing back to the Democrats is unrealistic to expect. So…count the House as Republican again in 2013.

There are 11 Democratic Senators whose terms expire in 2012. This is in sharp contrast to only 3 Republicans. A swing of only two or three seats turns the majority to the Republican here as well. Count the Senate as Republican as well as the House.

Bottom line is that we have a fully Republican Congress in 2013.

Next, the Presidency
History definitely favors an incumbent President.
There are three exceptions in recent times. All are special cases.
Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter and George Bush I.

Gerald Ford was barely an incumbent. He was President less than a year after Richard Nixon resigned. He was never elected President in his own right.
And, he had just pardoned Nixon. In hindsight, history is divided about if that was a good or bad move for the country. But, at the time, it was roundly criticized and weighed him down as a Nixon man. So, he started way behind. But, even then, he was closing fast, but did lose to a Watergate reaction change candidate, Jimmy Carter.

Jimmy Carter had three strikes against him in his reelection bid, maybe even four. First, he won a bruising primary battle with a Kennedy. Consequently, many long standing Democrats doubted him and sat on their hands during the election.
Second, the economy was in shambles with double-digit inflation and double-digit unemployment. Never the twain has ever met, before or since.
Third, was the Iranian hostage crisis. His response was an ill-fated rescue attempt, which failed. America hates failure.
Fourth, his opponent was Ronald Reagan, an actor, the great communicator, who tore Carter apart in the debates.
Never has there been a more perfect storm for an incumbent President to lose.

Finally, there was the first George Bush.
Here, we had a rarity, a three-candidate contest. Remember Ross Perot?
How many Clinton votes do you think Perot took? How many Bush votes?
Clinton won with a 43% plurality of the vote. Without Perot, Bush would surely have won.

Contrast that with all the successful incumbents who might have looked in jeopardy at the two year out period as we are at now.
Harry Truman, even Ronald Reagan was in some trouble, Bill Clinton (with the Gingrich House), George Bush II (with a very unpopular war).
All pulled out what looked like upset victories two years before the election.

Lets look at their opposition.
Truman, a colorful campaigner (Remember the whistle stops?) beat the lack luster Dewey.
Reagan beat Michael Dukakis, very badly in the debates. Remember the question about rape of your daughter?
Bush ran a much better campaign that another Massachusetts Democrat with a worrisome war record, John Kerry.
In all cases, well run campaigns with charismatic candidates beat poorly run campaigns with lack luster candidates.

So, now we come to 2012 and, presumably, another Obama Democrat candidacy.
I say presumably, because there is always the chance he will drop out if all seems lost…like Lyndon Johnson. Or, maybe even be forced out by unhappy, left of center Democrats. But, I doubt it will get that bad…if bad at all. So, I will assume Barack Obama will be the Democratic candidate in 2012. Maybe with or without Joe Biden. I think Hillary Clinton would add more to the ticket than Joe Biden. But, I am not sure she would accept it. And, I doubt the VP candidate really matters anyway.

But, I digress.

Lets evaluate the Obama chances….two years ahead…Obviously, a risky business.
Lets look at three things…. foreign policy, domestic policy and the charisma issue.

Foreign Policy
In an earlier blog, I talked about Afghanistan. I still see it as a losing proposition.
So, somehow Obama has to find a graceful way to exit a war that is steadily declining in public acceptance. The sooner the better, but no more than one year.
Prediction number 1 in this regard is that the war in Afghanistan will wind down very soon and be full by one year from now. I already said that in my earlier blog on Afghanistan.

The next issue is Iran. I think he will (try to) avoid this like a plague. And the public will allow that. Nobody likes Iran, but nobody considers them an immediate threat. So, few are demanding any action. OK, so maybe the Israel Lobby. But, not enough.

Next is North Korea. Here, I see him talking big, but, probably (see below), trying to avoid any direct action. I do not see the general public clamoring for a war in Korea. But, if the North Koreans develop enough firepower to threaten the U.S. west coast, look out. I could see a surgical strike to wipe out these threatening missiles. This could lead to a land war in Korea. If sitting President Obama thinks a war might help him because the country rarely changes horses during a war, watch out. North Korean belligerence would give him his opening. Remember the old domino theory of the Viet Nam era? If Korea goes, so might the rest of Asia. This time going to the Chinese. If we are out of Afghanistan and Iraq, there will be resources for Korea.

There is nothing like a real war to pull us out of a recession. Something to take the public attention away from the economy. We must stop the Chinese Menace in its tracks!!!!
So, a conventional land war in Korea, where American firepower can be decisive, is a definite possibility. Americans love to beat their breasts with victories. In the long term, it might not be a quick win. But, in the short term, it might appear so.

Next is China herself. Here I see some real long term problems. But, not in the next two years. Again, the general public has a vague feeling of worry about China. But, it is not a crisis. It could become a crisis, however, if China comes into a war in Korea. However, I do not see China yet having the military capability to actually threaten the U.S. Maybe enough to help the North Koreans as they did the first time. But, not enough to actually threaten our homeland. They may have enough fiscal power to become a problem. But, not in the next two years. They will hope to bleed us financially. But, not drastically enough to be a problem over the next two years.

So, bottom line, I do not see the foreign policy side of the equation being a major issue. It will only become so if Obama wants to make it one to take attention away from the economy. Korea gives him the opportunity.


Domestic Policy
It’s all about jobs. And, this is a major problem for the Obama team. Even the most optimistic economists do not think the unemployment rate will fall below 8% over the next year. And many see it still above 9%. I cannot see the public falling in behind an incumbent President with over 40 million unemployed.

Charisma
Charisma has trumped everything in virtually every presidential election in modern times…maybe even in history. OK, so maybe not with Jimmy Carter. But, his opponent, Jerald Ford, was even more lack luster than Carter.
Candidate Obama had great charisma last time. A young merchant of change. So, what happened?
Did anything really change? OK so we got health care that few really understand. We got a financial control bill that turns out to be quite weak. And, that nobody but the big bankers really understand either.
We have a really smart President who the public either does not understand…or worse, is beginning to doubt. Some of his opponents say he was always too inexperienced for the job in the first place. And, has surrounded himself with a weak, uncharismatic, team…. Hillary Clinton notwithstanding. Technocrats who may, or may not, understand technical problems. But, who cannot explain them anyway.

His past supporters largely stayed home this last mid year election. Either they were burned out from two years ago. Or, they were genuinely disappointed.

The average public doubts, at least is suspicious of, intellectual intelligence. And President Obama exudes that very characteristic. Adlai Stevenson was the consummate intelligent intellectual, who the public never understood…or trusted. Dwight Eisenhower was the consummate common man and war hero. OK, so he was unbeatable anyway. But Stevenson never gave him a run for his money.

The mainstream public likes someone who drops his or her g’s and takes quick, decisive action. Like George Bush II. Obama studies problems to death and then gives long, complicated explanations. In the back of their minds, many people trust his intelligence. But, in the front of their minds they do not feel comfortable with him. Not a good old boy.

And…., of course, there is still the race issue. It took a truly special set of circumstances to overcome that last time. But, it is still there.

A major remake is in order. I think it is too late for Obama to look like a good old boy. But, not to late for his actions to be decisive and explanations to become clearer and crisper.
No longer can he study things indefinitely. No longer can he live on change alone. He needs to inspire us with decisive action. He needs to give us hope for the future. The American public likes to feel good about the future. Obama needs to show us the way to a better future. Anybody remember Ronald Reagan?

Or….he needs divided or weak opposition. Here lies his best hope.
Will the Republicans split into two pieces? I think they are too smart for that.. But big egos sometimes trump logic. Remember Ross Perot and Ralph Nader?

Or, will they find a way to unify around one person, with the other part of the party accepting the second place on the ticket? Sarah Palin and a mature, steady centrist as VP? Or George Romney and a rightist like Marco Rubio as VP? Or somebody we have not yet even heard of?

Palin is surely charismatic. But, Obama might be such a contrast on the intelligence front so as to make the public fear placing the country in her hands. No matter how uncomfortable main street America may be with intellectual Obama, they seem even more uncomfortable with, maybe even fearful of, lightweight Palin. Just like it is impossible for Obama to change his intellectual image, so is it too late for Palin to change her lightweight one

Romney or some other centrist would pale in comparison with a revitalized Obama. Obama is still young enough to inspire hope for the future against an old, tired, lack luster, Romney.

Bottom line on the Presidency
I think the cards are stacked against President Obama. But incumbency allows him to create an environment to pull it off. He has to figure out how to use that incumbency effectively. Some foreign policy coup. Or, maybe a war in Korea. Foreign policy is one area where the president has the freedom to take action.

Or…he needs to be lucky and have divided opposition or a flawed single opponent.

Bottom line overall
At best, for me anyway, I see a divided result. I do not see any way that the Democrats can win either side of the Congress. So, one end of Pennsylvania Avenue is definitely Republican. Maybe even, overwhelmingly so.

The only hope for the Democrats is to keep the Presidency. Even if it leads to gridlock for four more years. Then, they can wait for the country’s economy to improve (as it will likely eventually do just by cycles), benefit from the country’s never ending demand for change and frustration with another do nothing Congress, and carry out a rebirth in the mid year election of 2014.

But, if they lose the Presidency, I see a long hard winter of 4 or 8 years for people of my political persuasion.

Alas, my brain is very worried, but my heart is hopeful. I guess I will have to dig in and work hard in 2012.