Evolving Weather Forecast Technology

As Hurricane Sandy churned its way toward Mt Vernon, I thought about how much weather forecast technology has changed since George Washington's time in the late 1700s. This, as I prepared to give the Washington, DC chapter of the CCNY Alumni Association, a tour of this historic sight...on a marvelous autumn day in October.  As a Meteorology major, I graduated from CCNY in June of 1961, to embark on a 40 year career in Meteorology, that started with earning MS and PhD degrees from Penn State University, also in Meteorology.  The storm was in the news and my charges all wanted to know what would happen......From their fellow CCNY grad...who just happened to be a Meteorologist.  So, here was my lecture as we waited for the group to collect.

Washington's Time
In the late 1700s, the only tools that a weather forecaster had were his eyes and a barometer.  (Yes, virtually all scientists of that time would have been males. Thus, the his above).  On this October day (October 27), he would have seen falling pressure on the barometer.  And....high, thin clouds in the sky.  Both would have warned him of worsening weather.  But, in fact, as the afternoon wore on, the skies brightened.  Maybe things would not be so bad after all.
He would have been in a quandary about what to tell George about tomorrow;s weather.  What to expect on the way Io church on Sunday....15 miles north in Alexandria.
Let alone next week for crop and house maintenance work.

Lincoln's Time
The next 100 years saw the emergence of teletype machines to improve communication.
Now our forecaster could see weather to the west as well as overhead.  And, on this day, he would have seen fair weather to the west.  Since weather normally moves west to east in  the US, our forecaster might have been inclined to predict improving weather at Mt Vernon over the next few days.  No problem for George's trip to church in Alexandra on Sunday.  And, maybe a good time for outdoor work on the farm next week.  Although by Lincoln's;s time, George was long gone as was the farm.....

Weinstein's Time  (Pardon me for equating myself with them.)
The beginning of my meteorology career saw the introduction of weather radar and satellites. Now, a weather forecaster could not only see to the west, but, also to the south and east.  And, there was trouble there.  A hurricane was off shore and moving north.  Combined with the cold high over the US Midwest and another high over Greenland, this spelled trouble for Mt Vernon.  A Synoptic Meteorologist of that day would have predicted serious weather for all of the Mid and North Atlantic states, including Mt Vernon.  But, the timing and intensity of the storm would have been unknown.  Bad, and next week would be all he could say with confidence.  He might have fallen back on past storms for a clue.  Some called this "Analog" forecasting.  Some simply called it "experience".  But, no two storms are ever the same. 
(I might add, that I was never a forecaster, so I was never faced with this task.  Instead, I was working in research, to improve weather forecasting.  Most said I would always have a job.)

Now
Over the past 50 years the technology advance has been in computer power and numerical weather prediction models.  Now we can pin down the intensity and timing of such storms.  In this case the predictions were for 40 - 60 MPH winds and 6 - 10 inches of rain.  All to occur between Monday and Tuesday....at Mt Vernon.  By now, George would have been able to dri\ve to church in Alexandria on Sunday.  But, would have been well advised to return to Mt Vernon quickly to oversea the batten downing of the farm for the impending deluge.......As people all over the Mid and North Atlantic states were doing.   We were all preparing for the storm of the century....or the "Frankinstorm" as it was called, coming the day before Halloween. 

Summary
So, over the past 250 or so years, weather forecasting technology, and knowledge, has progressed from the eyeball and the barometer, to a complex set of satellite and radar observations and computer models. 
In George Washington's time, the storm would have been largely a surprise, at least in its intensity and destructive power.  Today, we were prepared.
That is not to say we had no problems from this storm.  A few lives were lost in the Mt Vernon area, and many more were, and still are being, effected by loss of power.  And there was much destruction of property.  More lives would probably been lost in George;s time, and there would almost surely have been greater damage to his estate at Mt Vernon.  But, candles would have lit the Mansion and fireplace fires would have warmed it.
Today, many houses are dark, save for flashlights, and some people will be cold tonight as the temperature falls into the low 40's....and...snow falls in West Virginia.

NJ, NY, and New England would have fared much worse in Washington's time due to the surprise of the storm.  But, these places are still suffering today.  This shows that improved weather forecasting can help.  But, Mother Nature still prevails.

Maybe the next technology advance will be in weather modification, to keep bad weather away, or reduce its intensity.  That is hard to envision now.  But, then again, George never envisioned weather satellites, computers or, maybe even teletype machines. 
. 
.